EU CONSUMER CYCLICALS: Securitas: 3Q Results

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is due to arrive at the White House shortly for a third in-person meeting with US President Donald Trump. The pair will hold a bilateral meeting and working lunch. There is no join press conference scheduled, but reporters are likely to be admitted into the Oval Office for questions at the top of the visit. 

• The meeting comes shortly after Washington and Ottawa launched mandated consultations ahead of next summer’s deadline to renegotiate the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. While Ottawa has been subject to a raft of Trump’s national security/sectoral tariffs, the USMCA has ensured Canada’s effective tariff rate remains relatively low. The Financial Post noted last month, “a bit more than 90 per cent of Canadian products are entering the US [tariff] free.”
• CBC noted, “there is clear and obvious pressure on [Carney] to secure some kind of deal. But pressure is growing on the Trump administration as well. American farmers are clamouring for bailouts, bourbon producers are pushing for tariff relief and automakers are asking for a break of their own.”
• The New York Times notes, “Canadian officials remained largely silent before leaving for Washington, and people in the industries most affected by [Trump’s] trade war said they had little expectation of any significant breakthroughs.”
• Chris Sand at Johns Hopkins University said: "My hypothesis has been that a USMCA truce would be politically shrewd ahead of the November 2026 midterms. It would end the trade war with the two biggest U.S. trade partners and stabilize prices and create conditions for business investment."

• Treasuries extend session highs - as do German Bunds in the last couple minutes, no Block/cross or obvious headline driver into the European close.
• A sell-off in stocks, however, coincided with the move in rates.
• Tsy Dec'25 10Y contract climbed to 112-20.5 high, trades 112-20 last (+7.5), initial firm resistance to watch is 113-00, the Sep 24 high. A break would be bullish. Curves mixed: 2s10s -1.290 at 55.072, 5s30s +.413 at 101.599.
• Equities: DJIA down 92.99 points (-0.2%) at 46602.59, S&P E-Minis down 23 points (-0.34%) at 6766.25, Nasdaq down 114.3 points (-0.5%) at 22829.46.

Treasury continued to raise bill auction sizes in Tuesday's announcements, with the 4-, 8-, and 17-week (4-month) bills each seeing offering sizes being boosted to all-time records.

• On Wednesday Treasury will sell $69B in 17-week bills (up $2B), while Thursday it will sell $110B in 4-week bill (up $5B) and $95B in 8-week bill (up $5B).
• This will raise $29B in net cash upon settlement next Tuesday, the highest for a bill settlement day since Sept 2.
• While October upsizings were well-expected and are typical for the month, the increases announced over the last week appear to be coming earlier and bigger than expected. Wrightson ICAP for example this morning wrote "We think the across-the-board increases in the weekly bill offerings announced last week will cover the Treasury’s cash needs over the next few weeks.  Accordingly, we look for unchanged offering sizes in this morning’s announcement."
• It's not entirely clear why Treasury has boosted sizes so aggressively - this is likely more about managing cash flows (TGA was still a sizeable $798B yesterday) rather than any insight into fiscal dynamics, but we note that this week's 3-/6-month bill sales were a little soft following respective resizings.