US TSYS/OVERNIGHT REPO: Secured Rates Ticked Up Monday, Set To Stay Elevated
Secured rates ticked up on Monday Nov 10 (data was published this morning by the NY Fed which alongside rate markets was closed Tuesday due to the Veterans Day holiday).
- SOFR rose 2bp (3.95%) with TGCR up 4bp (3.93%), marking the highest both in absolute terms and relative to the Fed's administered rates (notably IORB which is 3.90%) since Nov 4 when October month-end pressures looked to have been dissipating.
- We also note that takeup of the Fed's Standing Repo Facility came in at $6.05B in this morning's operation, already the highest for a full day since Nov 3.
- Additionally, Treasury bill settlement will raise $14B in new cash today and $23B Thursday, applying some upside pressure to funding rates.
- As such it doesn't look like there will be much relief in rates today.
- Effective Fed funds were unchanged at 3.87% Monday.
REPO REFERENCE RATES (rate, change from prev. day, volume):
* Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 3.95%, 0.02%, $3135B
* Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 3.93%, 0.04%, $1234B
* Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 3.93%, 0.04%, $1214B
New York Fed EFFR for prior session (rate, chg from prev day):
* Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 3.87%, no change, volume: $77B
* Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 3.87%, no change, volume: $161B
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LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: Fed Speak Focus on Chairman Powell's Outlook
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 10/14 0600 NFIB Small Business Optimism (100.8, 100.6)
- 10/14 0845 Fed VC Bowman moderated discussion ay IIF (no text)
- 10/14 1130 US Tsy $86B 13W & $77B 26W bill auctions
- 10/14 1220 Fed Chair Powell economic outlook MANE meeting (text, Q&A)
- 10/14 1300 US Tsy $95B 6W bill auction
- 10/14 1525 Fed Gov Waller, payments panel at IIF (no text, Q&A)
- 10/14 1530 Boston Fed Collins moderated discussion (text, Q&A)
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
JAPAN: Oppo. Parties To Meet 14 Oct; Komeito May Back Non-LDP PM Candidate
The secretaries-general of the three main opposition parties: the liberal Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), the libertarian federalist Japan Innovation Party (Ishin), and the conservative populist Democratic Party for the People (DPFP), are due to hold talks on 14 Oct regarding the prospect of an alliance to elect a new PM. There remains the prospect that the three parties could look to unite and present a joint prime ministerial candidate in the National Diet session (likely 20/21 Oct), where a successor to the outgoing PM, Shigeru Ishiba, will be elected.
- The Komeito party announced in early October that it would not back new Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) president Sanae Takaichi’s bid to become PM, raising the prospect of the opposition ousting the LDP for the first time since 2012.
- After the SG-level meeting on 14 Oct, the leaders of the CDP, Ishin and DPFP could meet on 15 Oct.
- In a potential boost to the opposition's chances, Tetsuo Saito, leader of the centrist Komeito party, has reversed his previous stance and said that voting for an opposition candidate for PM was "one of the possibilities" in a run-off election in the Diet.
- Despite dissolving the governing coalition with the LDP last week, Saito previously said that "voting for the leader of the opposition party would be out of the question". This change in view could bolster the prospects of DPFP leader Yuichiro Tamaki (seen as the frontrunner of potential opposition PM) winning a run-off in the Diet.
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