US TSYS/OVERNIGHT REPO: Secured Rates Should Remain Firm On Coupon Settles
Secured rates were modestly firmer Thursday, amid upside pressure from Treasury bill auction settlements (net $42B cash raised). Though SOFR rose 1bp to 4.34%, it remained within recent ranges (and other rates remained steady).
- Upward pressure is likely to be sustained Friday due to $35B in net Treasury cash raised via coupon settlements.
REPO REFERENCE RATES (rate, change from prev. day, volume):
* Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.34%, 0.01%, $2767B
* Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.32%, no change, $1169B
* Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 4.32%, no change, $1144B
New York Fed EFFR for prior session (rate, chg from prev day):
* Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 4.33%, no change, volume: $114B
* Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 4.33%, no change, volume: $253B
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US TSYS: Paring Gains on Latest Rumors Over Fed Powell Firing
- After rising to moderate session highs, Treasury futures have started to pare gains after latest headlines that Pre Trump asked GOP lawmakers if he should fire Fed Chairman Powell now - before the end of his term in May 2026.
- Currently, Sep'25 10Y contract trades +9.5 at 110-18.5 vs. 110-20.5 high. Initial technical resistance above at 111-01 (20-day EMA). Support below at 110-08.5 (Low Jul 14)
- Curves mildly steeper/off lows: 2s10s +.521 at 54.261; 5s30s +1.845 at 99.755.
- USD: Modest dip lower for the greenback, Bbg index BBDXY -0.21 at 1207.24 vs. 1210.13 high.
FED: CBS Report Points To Trump Asking If He Should Fire Powell
BBG headlines point to a CBS report that suggested that U.S. President Trump asked GOP lawmakers if he should fire Fed Chair Powell on Tuesday, with the sources contributing to the report indicating that he will fire Powell.
- A reminder that our political risk team’s daily note highlighted the following: Republican Representative Anna Paulina Luna posted on X after an Oval Office meeting with President Trump yesterday, “Hearing Jerome Powell is getting fired! From a very serious source,” adding in a second post, “I’m 99% sure firing is imminent,” referring to Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
EU: VdL Outlines Commission's MFF Proposals
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is outlining the Commission's proposals for the next Multiannual Financial Framework, the EU's long-term budget running 2028-34. Livestream here. VdL claims that member state contributions to the budget "will remain constant" while proposing a "step change in direct revenue" for the MFF. The Commission has confirmed its overall figure of just below EUR2 trillion for the period.
- VdL says that the EU has tripled its budget for migration and border management.
- Claims that "respect for the rule of law will apply to all EU funding." Likely to prove a major issue in negotiations. Those countries hit by Article 7. proceedings such as Hungary unlikely to acquiesce to tighter rules on receiving EU funds.
- VdL claims that the Competitiveness Fund 'will back the strategic technologies of tomorrow', and that the new budget proposes the doubling of Horizon Europe R&D funding.
- Claims that a "five times increase in defence spending reflects how security is a top concern fo citizens and gov't."
Euronews outlines the breakdown in the main pillars: "Her blueprint remodels the budget's structure along three main pillars: €865 billion for agricultural, fisheries, cohesion and social policy. €410 billion for competitiveness, including research and innovation. €200 for external action, including €100 billion for Ukraine."
