SECURITY: Second Trump-Putin Meeting Could Be 'Quickly Organised' - Kremlin
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitri Peskov told Russian outlet Argumenty i Fakty that a second meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump could take place in the near future, with “working contacts" taking place "all the time.”
- Peskov: "I have no doubt that if the presidents consider it necessary, their meeting can be organized very quickly. Just as the meeting in Alaska was quickly organized."
- The comments came after Trump spoke with European leaders yesterday to discuss the outcome of a meeting of the so-called ‘coalition of the willing’ group of Ukraine-backers in Paris yesterday. The New York Times notes that more than 30 heads of state and government attended the meeting, but few details emerged about exactly how the European nations would help Ukraine or how the US would be involved.
- A White House official said Trump pushed European leaders to stop buying Russian oil that he said allows Moscow’s military to sustain the conflict, per Politico. The official added, “[Trump] also emphasized that European leaders must place economic pressure on China for funding Russia’s war efforts.”
- French President Emmanuel Macron told reporters that, without a peace deal, Russia would face international sanctions, including from the US. But, as the Times points out, “Trump has threatened sanctions before without following through.”
- Politico notes that Trump’s call for economic pressure on China, “may have evoked eyerolls among some European leaders", as Trump has deferred secondary sanctions on Beijing, similar to those levied on India.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
EGBS: German Curve Bear Steepens Ahead Of Bund Supply
The German curve has bear steeped ahead of this morning’s 15-year Bund auction, with Schatz yields little changed at 1.91% and 30-year yields up 3bps at 3.17%. The 5s30s curve has moved away from Thursday’s 86.8bp multi-week low, now back at 94bps.
- Bund futures are biased lower, albeit on light volumes, but a bullish technical theme remains intact. Futures are currently -17 ticks at 130.18, still above the 50-day EMA.
- 10-year EGB spreads to Bunds are up to 0.5bps wider today. The 10-year BTP/OAT spread has taken another leg lower since the end of July, now just below 14bps for the tightest since 2007.
- This morning’s regional data has not been market moving. German factory orders were skewed lower by the volatile large-scale orders category (-1.0% M/M vs 1.1% cons, an upwardly revised -0.8% prior), while Italian industrial production was stronger-than-expected at 0.2% M/M (vs -0.2% cons, -0.8% prior). French private payrolls growth remains tepid, while Eurozone retail sales were in line at 0.3% M/M.
GILTS: Early Bear Steepening Holds, Global Supply & Crude Eyed
Gilts hold lower with the presence of global supply and an uptick in crude oil weighing.
- Lows of 92.36 seen in futures so far, contract last -31 at 92.44.
- Bears will look to force a break of Monday’s low (92.24) to expose the 20-day EMA (91.86), as they look to quell some of the recent bullish momentum. Initial resistance at yesterday’s high (92.84).
- Yields 0.5-3.0bp higher, curve bear steepens.
- 2s10s back above 70bp after the first close below since early July, while 5s30s remains pinned around 140bp.
- SONIA futures +1.0 to -3.5, strip twist steepens.
- BoE-dated OIS showing ~49bp of easing through year-end, with over 90% odds of a cut priced for tomorrow.
- Click for our full preview of tomorrow’s decision.
- NIESR’s warning on the UK fiscal situation/need for meaningful tax hikes, has garnered most of the interest when it comes to local news developments.
- Our political risk team notes that with Reform UK benefiting from significant public anger at Labour's handling of immigration and crime, breaking its manifesto promises on tax could further damage the gov'ts standing ahead of elections to the Scottish and Welsh parliaments and English local councils in 2026.
- Little of note on the UK macro calendar today, which will leave focus on cross-market matters (Fed leadership, global trade etc.) for much of the day.
COMMODITIES: Gold Consolidating at Higher Levels
Gold benefited from the soft NFP print on Friday, returning prices toward the top-end of the recent range. This supports the view that short-term weakness is corrective - for now - and a bull cycle that started Jun 30 remains intact. WTI futures fell for a fourth consecutive session into the Tuesday close, keeping S/T momentum pointed lower. Support to watch remains the 50-day EMA, at $65.48 - a level pierced yesterday. A clear break would expose $58.17, the May 30 low.
- WTI Crude up $0.99 or +1.52% at $66.24
- Natural Gas down $0.06 or -1.89% at $2.954
- Gold spot down $14.97 or -0.44% at $3366.25
- Copper up $1.95 or +0.44% at $440.75
- Silver down $0.01 or -0.03% at $37.8124
- Platinum up $6.26 or +0.47% at $1330.33
