CNH: Scope For Continued Outperformance Amidst Strong Exports/Trump Visit

NZGBs are unchanged after Friday’s holiday.  

• US tsys finished Friday with a modest bear-flattener, a calmer session versus Thursday's risk-off moves tied to Crypto & AI-tied equity rout.
• UofM headline Sentiment index rose to a 6-month high 57.3 from 56.4 (55.0 consensus), with Current Conditions continuing to edge up from its multi-decade lows late last year, to 58.3 compared to the pullback to 53.7 expected (55.4 prior). Expectations however dipped to 56.6 from 57.0 although that wasn't as bad as the 55.1 consensus.
• Fed Vice Chair Jefferson, whose views we assume are closely aligned with those of Chair Powell and other core FOMC members, suggested in a speech on Friday that he's satisfied with the current stance of policy and isn't in much of a rush to cut again given an improving economic outlook.
• The DJIA climbed a new record high of 50,055.20 late in the session as Bitcoin rebounds ~12% after falling ~17% on Thursday.
• The US January Labour Market Report will be released on Wednesday followed by the latest CPI inflation report on Friday.
• Swap rates are little changed.
• RBNZ-dated OIS pricing is little changed across meetings. No tightening is priced for February, while December 2026 assigns 43bps.

The NZD/USD had a range Friday Night of 0.5972 - 0.6027, Asia is trading around 0.6010. The NZD regained both Thursday and Friday’s losses as risk had a remarkable turnaround. Quite the end to a volatile week but I am still not sure what it means going forward, is the bottom for risk now in and do we go back to the high as per usual, lets see. On the day, the NZD is back above 0.6000 after finding solid demand back toward the 0.5900 area. The bulls will be hoping the pair can regain the momentum to test the pivotal 0.6100 area. On the day, first support is back toward 0.5960-0.5990 and then the 0.5850-0.5900 area.

• (Bloomberg) -- Investors and policymakers are gearing up for a busy week of US economic reports that includes arguably the two most consequential data snapshots — employment and inflation.
• CFTC Data up to 03/02/2026 shows Asset Managers continuing to pare back their short positions in the NZD, -29882(Last -40930). The Leveraged community only slightly reduced their own shorts, -10597(Last -11658). 
• The NZD/USD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 60 Points

Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI