GERMANY: Scholz's SPD Fall To Third Place In Latest Opinion Poll
May-20 08:16
The latest federal election opinion poll has Chancellor Olaf Scholz's centre-left Social Democrats falling to third place, behind the opposition centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the environmentalist centre-left Greens.
- Federal election opinion poll: CDU/CSU: 26% (+3), Greens: 24% (+3), SPD: 22% (-3), AfD: 10% (-1), FDP: 7% (-2), Die Linke: 4% . FSG Wahlen, Fieldwork 17-19 May, chgs w. 29 Apr, 1,162 respondents.
- Recent weeks have seen significant blows to Scholz's standing in the form of poor results for the SPD in state elections in Schleswig-Holstein and North Rhine-Westphalia. Scholz became involved heavily in campaigning, notably in the NRW election, leading to pundits viewing the vote as a 'referendum' on Scholz's leadership.
- The chancellor's stance on military support for Ukraine and the imposition of sanctions on Russia has come in for some criticism, with the more hardline Green members in the Cabinet (VC Habeck and FM Baerbock) winning plaudits for their vocal backing of more aid for Ukraine and tougher sanctions on Russia.
- Scholz is likely to remain safe in his position for now. However, over the longer term a sustained drop in support for the SPD could see challengers within the party emerge.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
EQUITIES: EU Bank stock option
Apr-20 08:08
SX7E (17th June) 100 call, bought for 0.80 in 10k
BONDS: Upside continuation
Apr-20 08:06
- With BTP outperforming, already 100 ticks up, the BTP/Bud spread is 3bps tighter and testing support at the 160bps area, now at 160.3.
- Next resistance for the BTP moves down to 133.82.
- There's been a combination of short cover and also dip buying in early trade, as Yield tested new multi year highs overnight.
- BoJ Bond buying announcement has provided some upside traction.
- Next resistance in Gilts comes at 118.54 High Apr 19
- Bund eye last Friday's gap at 154.71.
- TYM2 resistance moves down to 119.16+ initially.
SWEDEN: Support For Joining NATO Hits New High In Latest Poll
Apr-20 08:04
Public support for joining NATO has hit a new high in the latest Demoskop opinion poll for Aftonbladet. Talk of both Sweden and Finland looking to join the defensive alliance has intensified following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
- Should Sweden join NATO? (all voters) Yes: 57% (+6), No: 21% (-3), Undecided: 22% (-3). Source: Demoskop, Fieldwork: 14-19 Apr, chgs w/ March 2022, 1,177 respondents
- There has also been a significant increase in the number of supporters of PM Magdelena Andersson's centre-left Social Democrats supporting NATO membership. Of those stating they would vote for Andersson's party in the September 2022 general election, 41% supported Sweden joining NATO, up from 29% in March.
- Should Sweden join NATO? (Social Democrat voters): Yes: 41% (+12), No: 25% (-8), Don't know: 33% (-5), Source: Demoskop, chgs w/ March 2022
- Among supporters of the right-wing Sweden Democrats, there is now a majority in favour of joining NATO following the party's executive committee decision earlier in April that backed accession. Sixty-five percent of Sweden Democrats supporters now support joining NATO, compared to 20% opposed and 15% not sure.
