SNB: Schlegel Remaining Within Common Themes

• RES 4: 7080.92 0.764 proj Nov 21 - Dec 11 - 18 price swing  
• RES 3: 7021.79 0.618 proj Nov 21 - Dec 11 - 18 price swing
• RES 2: 7014.00 High Oct 30 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 6994.00 High Dec 26   
• PRICE: 6952.00 @ 14:31 GMT Dec 30
• SUP 1: 6905.84/6855.68 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 6771.50 Low Dec 18 and a key support 
• SUP 3: 6684.50 Low Nov 24  
• SUP 4: 6583.00 Low Nov 21 and a reversal trigger  

The recent pullback in S&P E-Minis has been a correction. A key short-term support has been defined at 6771.50, the Dec 18 low. A break of this level is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement and would highlight a possible short-term reversal. For bulls, sights are on key resistance at 7014.00, the Oct 30 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend.

E-minis little changed to a touch lower ahead of the Wall St. opening bell, yesterday’s lows untested across the 3 major contracts.

• S&P 500 e-minis: -0.07%
• NASDAQ 100 e-minis: -0.16%
• DJIA e-minis: -0.02%

The latest Johnson Redbook retail sales index showed growth of 7.6% Y/Y in the week ending December 27, an acceleration from 7.2% prior. That brought month-to-date sales to 6.7% Y/Y with one week remaining on December's retail calendar (Jan 3), above retailers' targeted 6.5% and November's 6.4%. Indeed if the pace is maintained that would mark the joint-highest reading since December 2022 (April 2025 also posted 6.7%).

• While in nominal terms, that's suggestive of a solid end of the year for control retail sales, suggesting little let-up in PCE gains in Q4 (Q3 overall real PCE grew 3.5% Q/Q SAAR, with Goods PCE up 3.1%). The Atlanta Fed's currently nowcasting a 2.7% gain in Q4.
• We won't get the official Census Bureau retail sales data for December until an as-yet undetermined date; the November report is due out January 14.
• The anecdotes suggested strong consumer activity just before and after Christmas on the 25th: "Sales accelerated, with higher traffic counts in the days leading up to Christmas. Retailers reported most business occurred on the 24th—especially in groceries, jewelry, beauty, and home furnishings. After Christmas, traffic remained high as consumers exchanged and returned gifts, redeemed gift cards, searched for last-minute presents, and hunted for bargains. Retailers observed less return traffic as people researched purchases and adhered to budgets. More consumers, particularly young people influenced by social media and financial strain, are visiting thrift stores to find unique items and vintage designer brands, driven by sustainability concerns and the appeal of new shopping experiences."