EGB OPTIONS: Schatz Call Condor

• RES 4: 123.14 1.764 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 3: 122.81 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 2: 122.53 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 1: 121.94 High Oct 17 / 22 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 120.72 @ 07:20 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 120.53 Low Nov 14           
• SUP 2: 120.15 50.0% retracement of the Sep 3 - Oct 17 bull leg 
• SUP 3: 119.73 61.8% retracement of the Sep 3 - Oct 17 bull leg
• SUP 4: 119.07 Low Sep 25

The trend set-up in BTP futures is bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Note that the contract has breached support at 120.74, the Aug 5 high, and pierced the 50-day EMA, at 120.76. A continuation lower would highlight potential for a deeper correction and expose 120.15, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 121.94, the Oct 17 high. A break of this hurdle would resume the uptrend

• RES 4: $4404.9 - 3.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: $4400.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $4381.5 - High Oct 20 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $4264.7 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 20 - 28 correction                  
• PRICE: $4075.8 @ 07:27 GMT Nov 17 
• SUP 1: $4032.3 - Low Nov 14  
• SUP 2: $3927.5 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $3886.6 - Low Oct 28 and a reversal trigger  
• SUP 4: $3751.3 - 3800.00 Round number support

Gold is trading below last week’s high. The downleg between Oct 20 and 28, appears to have been a correction and has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains suggest that correction is over. Key support lies at the 50-day EMA, at $3927.5. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would pave the way for a test of $4381.5, the Oct 20 high and bull trigger.

• RES 4: $71.47 - High Jun 23 and a key medium-term resistance 
• RES 3: $67.68 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $65.77/68.43 - High Sep 26 and key resistance 
• RES 1: $62.59 - High Oct 24    
• PRICE: $59.45 @ 07:14 GMT Nov 15 
• SUP 1: $55.96 - Low Oct 20 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $54.85 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $54.16 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $53.23 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing   

A sell-off in WTI futures on Nov 12 strengthens a bearish theme. A continuation lower would pave the way for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at $55.96, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Note that it is still possible a bullish corrective cycle remains in play. Resistance to watch is $62.59, the Oct 24 high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal scope for a stronger correction.