EM CEEMEA CREDIT: Sasol (SASOL): Q2 ‘26 Prod’n Update

Earlier on 23 Dec, French President Emmanuel Macron posted (in English) on X, "In Nuuk, I reaffirmed France’s unwavering support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Denmark and Greenland. Greenland belongs to its people. Denmark stands as its guarantor. I join my voice to that of Europeans in expressing our full solidarity." The French president's call for European solidarity comes amid a re-escalation in transatlantic tensions between the Trump administration and the gov't of Denmark over the future of Greenland. 

• US President Donald Trump's appointment of Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry (R) as 'special envoy to Greenland' earlier in the week has sparked a firm backlash in Nuuk and Copenhagen, as well as several other European capitals, where national leaders have sought to reiterate their support for Denmark.
• Even the European Commission, which has historically stayed quiet on issues where the US president's ire may be raised, criticised the move.
• In October, Politico speculated on the potential method the White House would use to gain effective control of Greenland: "...the Danish government doesn’t expect a military invasion — it expects an invasion of dollars. Either as an outright offer to pay a large sum to each Greenlander, or a campaign to buy influence and local politicians."
• The renewal of the Greenland issue remains a risk to cooperation between NATO states, as well as the future of the US-EU joint statement on trade, with Trump having proved willing to threaten economic ruin via tariffs to secure concessions in other areas. 

Core global FI markets have drawn support from dovish EUR STIR repricing following late Monday comments from ECB Executive Board member Schnabel and spillover from a bid in JGBs. 

• Schnabel told a FAZ podcast that "at the moment, no interest rate increase is to be expected in the foreseeable future... I didn’t say that interest rates should be raised...but rather that they shouldn’t be lowered again. That’s a very important distinction" (per Bloomberg).
• Markets price ~5bp of ECB tightening through ’26 vs. ~6.5bp early yesterday.
• Bund futures +47 at 127.43.
• Initial resistance at 127.24 is pierced, with bulls looking to break the Dec 19 high (127.52) and close Friday’s opening gap low (127.55). Ultimately, they need to break the 20-day EMA (127.91) to start to threaten the bearish trend. First support is 126.75.
• German yields 0.5-4.0bp lower. 10s further below 2.90%, 30s back below 3.50%. Curve flattens after 2s10s registered the highest close since September yesterday.
• EGB spreads to Bunds flat to 1.5bp tighter, peripheral paper & OATs outperform on the dovish STIR move.
• 70bp remains the key level to watch in both BTP/Bund & OAT/Bund spreads.
• Gilts look to global cues, futures +28 at 90.98.
• Support at 90.50 wasn’t tested during yesterday’s downtick.
• To the upside, resistance comes in at the 20-day EMA (91.17) followed by a cluster of highs (91.78 & 91.93).
• UK yields 1.5-3.0 bp lower, curve leans flatter. 2s10s ~2bp away from the November high (79.52bp) after threatening a break above yesterday.
• Little of note on the EU & UK calendar pre-Christmas, with focus on U.S. macro inputs today.

Belgium HICP decelerated by 0.4pp according to the Statbel flash estimate, coming in at 2.2% Y/Y in December. National CPI (non-HICP) inflation meanwhile also decelerated, to 2.06%% from 2.40% seen in November. Details of the CPI print:

• Core CPI (ex energy & unprocessed food) did slow down but not as much as headline CPI, printing 3.00% Y/Y (vs 3.10% prior). Services inflation was roughly unchanged this time, increasing to 4.54% Y/Y from 4.52% previously.
• "Inflation for food products (including alcoholic beverages) fell to 2.65% this month, compared to 3.00% the previous month.", Statbel comments, while "regarding energy, inflation stands at -5.00% this month, compared to -2.22% in November and -1.85% in October".
• Belgium releases its December inflation data considerably earlier than other countries this time, with Spain data not to follow until December 30 and the Eurozone-wide print only scheduled for January 7.