SOUTH AFRICA: SA Lobbies For Adoption Of G20 Communique Despite US Absence
Nov-18 07:40
- Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana expressed hope that it will be possible to issue a Leaders' Declaration from the G20 Summit in Johannesburg, despite speculation that the US could try and block it. Foreign Minister Ronald Lamola echoed this message and said that aggression toward South Africa comes from the US side and is motivated by ideology. BusinessDay reported that France has backed South Africa's push for the adoption of a full declaration as Pretoria believes that the absence of the US delegation will not derail emerging consensus.
- French officials spoke in support of South Africa amid its ongoing dispute with the US. President Emmanuel Macron's Africa adviser Jérémie Robert said that there was no evidence to support US President Donald Trump's allegations of a genocide against white South Africans, while global affairs adviser Camille Morfouace said that Trump's decision to skip the G20 summit was unusual. In addition, Robert told the Sunday Times that France 'absolutely' did not believe in the white genocide theory and 'felt solidarity with Ramaphosa' when he clashed with Trump in the Oval Office.
- The African National Congress (ANC) confirmed that 'the mayoral candidates for the metros and secondary cities shall (...) be handled by the national officials' and unveiled in advance, in reversal of the earlier practice of announcing mayoral candidates only after municipal elections. South African mayors are elected indirectly from among councillors.
- South Africa halted charter flights carrying Palestinians after the arrival of over 150 undocumented asylum seekers, who were initially denied entry, before being granted entry on humanitarian grounds.
- The National Treasury is looking to sell ZAR1.25bn of 9.875% 2039 bonds, ZAR1.25bn of 8.75% 2044 bonds and ZAR1.25 of 9% 2040 bonds.
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LOOK AHEAD: US Week Ahead Headlined By Delayed CPI Report On Friday
Oct-17 20:51
- The September US CPI report will be released on Friday, delayed amidst the government shutdown but with the BLS making a special exception on social security payment considerations.
- Bloomberg consensus looks for headline CPI inflation at a rounded 0.4% M/M after 0.38% back in August and for Y/Y inflation to firm two tenths to 3.1% for what would be its highest since May 2024.
- Core inflation is seen at a rounded 0.3% M/M after 0.35% in August (exceeding the median unrounded estimate of 0.31%) and 0.32% in July. It’s expected to see core CPI inflation hold at 3.1% Y/Y having in August increased to its highest since February.
- Core details should see focus on both goods and services angles: underlying goods inflation has clearly firmed in recent months on tariff pressures although the median increase has currently seen a peak back in June, whilst services will be watched for any spillover after some strong recent non-housing readings.
- The report will come within the FOMC blackout period ahead of the Oct 28-29 decision, with a 25bp cut fully priced and likely needing a large surprise to alter this.
- As for broader inflation details, Fed Chair Powell this week confusingly suggested that we will have the September PPI report but the BLS had previously said “No other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services”.
US DATA: Latest Jobless Claims Estimates During The Shutdown
Oct-17 20:30
As noted earlier, MNI estimates initial jobless claims at a seasonally adjusted 218k in the week to Oct 11 and continuing claims at a seasonally adjusted 1929k in the week to Oct 4.
- To give a better idea of sensitivity around these estimates, which rely on estimates for some missing states, we note the below analyst estimates:
- Goldman Sachs have a central estimate of 217k for initial claims in a range of 211-225k, whilst they see continuing claims at 1917k in a range of 1885-1930k.
- JPMorgan meanwhile also see 217k for initial claims whilst they see continuing claims as having held constant at 1927k.
NATGAS: Venture Global in Talks with Ukraine for more LNG Deliveries, Reuters
Oct-17 20:28
Ukraine is seeking more cargoes from Venture’s Plaquemines facility as the embattled nation approaches the winter heating season, according to Reuters sources
- Venture is in talks with Ukraine’s DTEK to procure more LNG cargoes after a year of gas infrastructure attacks by the Russians.
- Venture Global CEO Michael Sabel met with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Thursday October 16.
- DTEK signed an agreement in 2024 for an undisclosed amount of LNG from the facility, as well as 2 mtpa from Calcasieu Pass Phase 2 currently under construction.
- Plaquemines currently has spare capacity to deliver more cargoes to Ukraine on the spot market, per Reuters.
- Plaquemines now sends out the second highest LNG volume in the US, with feedgas demand averaging 3.45 bcf/d according to MNI figures.
