US-RUSSIA: Russia's Shoigu Confirms US Invited To Security Conference
Sergei Shoigu, Secretary of Russian Security Council and former defence minister, has confirmed to state-run TASS that the United States will be invited to attend an international security conference in Moscow running 27-29 May. Shoigu claims "representatives from more than 100 countries have already confirmed their participation in the upcoming meeting". Shoigu's comments come as another overture towards the United States as both sides seek to display improving bilateral relations following the call between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump earlier this week.
- Such signs of rapprochement are already causing significant concern in Kyiv, Brussels, and other European capitals. Euractiv reports from at the ongoing EUCO summit, that an unnamed EU official said "there was a shared view that no real negotiations are taking place at the moment".
- Trump's call for the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant to come under US control has already ruffled feathers - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that he told Trump in a call on 19 March that only Ukrainian control of the plant can ensure its functioning, and that he did not discuss the topic of US ownership with the US president.
- Zelenskyy also confirms that Ukrainian and US technical teams will meet on Monday 24 March in Saudi Arabia to discuss progress towards a ceasefire. As expected, this will be separate to the meeting between US and Russian teams set to take place on Sunday 23 March according to US Middle East envoy Steven Witkoff.
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CANADA DATA: Home Sales See Second Monthly Decline
- Existing home sales fell a seasonally adjusted -3.3% M/M in January to extend the -5.0% seen in December.
- The CREA’s composite price index inched 0.1% M/M lower whilst Y/Y growth edged higher from -0.2% to 0.2% Y/Y for its first positive reading since Mar 2024.
- The 4.2 months of supply followed three months averaging 3.8. Whilst it was the highest since August, it’s still below the long-term average of 5 months which has helped limit house price declines.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H5) Key Resistance Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 6205.38 0.764 proj of the Jan 13 - 24 - Feb 3 price swing
- RES 3: 6200.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 1: 6162.25 High Jan 24
- PRICE: 6155.75 @ 14:08 GMT Feb 18
- SUP 1: 6075.54 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 6014.00/5935.50 Low Feb 10 / 3
- SUP 3: 5892.37 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
- SUP 4: 5842.50 Low Jan 14
S&P E-Minis continue to climb and the contract maintains a firmer tone. Attention is on resistance at 6162.25, the Jan 24 high. Clearance of this level would expose the key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 ‘24 high. A move above this hurdle would resume the primary uptrend. On the downside, initial key support has been defined at 6014.00, the Feb 10 low. A break would highlight a bearish development.
ECB: Cipollone Discusses Impact Of Balance Sheet On MonPol Stance
Some more detailed excerpts from Cipollone’s speech, covering the balance sheet’s impact on the monetary policy stance and its transmission:
- “An evolving economic landscape suggests that balance sheet policies could be increasingly useful as monetary policy instruments”
- “First, the non-bank financial sector has grown considerably over time and is becoming increasingly relevant in the funding of the real economy”.
- “Second, geopolitical fragmentation means that the global economy is becoming more shock prone and subject to higher levels of uncertainty”
- “The decline in excess liquidity warrants careful monitoring, as it could exert additional tightening pressures on financial and financing conditions, potentially exceeding the intended policy stance”.
- “The ECB’s balance sheet has been reduced at a faster pace than those of central banks”…” much of this decline can be attributed to banks’ repayments of TLTRO loans”
- “Our balance sheet policy instruments continue to be a crucial item in our toolbox. The expectation that we will use them if necessary protects the smooth transmission of our monetary policy and reduces the likelihood that we will need to use these tools in the first place.
- “Moreover, in an environment of heightened uncertainty, even in the context of excess liquidity, we need to remain prudent and be ready to step in should another shock emerge. We should maintain the flexibility to swiftly expand liquidity facilities if stressful conditions arise”.
