MNI BCB Review – May 2025: 50BP Hike, June Decision Uncertain

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Executive Summary

• The Copom unanimously delivered an expected 50bp Selic rate hike to 14.75%, consistent with the prior guidance for a slowdown in the hiking pace.
• The statement left the guidance for the June meeting open-ended and dependent on the incoming data, raising the question of whether the tightening cycle may have ended.
• Several analysts now expect the Copom to keep the Selic rate at the current level for an extended period, although some still anticipate a final 25bp hike in June.