OIL: Russian Urals Discounts to India at Narrowest Since 2022: Reuters
Discounts for Russian Urals crude oil for delivery to Indian ports in July hit their narrowest levels since 2022 as spot supplies tighten, Reuters said.
- Narrowing discounts ad tight spot supplies are nudging Indian refiners to look for alternatives via buy tenders.
- Spot discounts for Urals crude narrowed to $2.25/b discount to Brent for DES India in July, compared to a $2.70-$3.10/b discount for June.
- This is the narrowest discount since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in Feb. 2022.
- India became the largest buyers of Russian seaborne crude after western buyers shunned Moscow’s supply.
- Some Indian refiners which do not have long-term supply agreements with Russian oil companies are not getting enough Urals oil in July, sources told Reuters.
- Higher demand from Turkey was cited as one reason for the increased competition for Urals.
- India remains the largest buyer of Russian Urals by sea, with imports hitting a 10-month high in May, Reuters said.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Trend Structure In Gold Remains Bullish
- On the commodity front, Gold has recovered from its recent lows and this suggests the correction between Apr 22 - May 1, is over. A continuation higher would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at $3500.1, the Apr 22 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. Key short-term support has been defined at $3202.0, the May 1 low. A break of this level is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement.
- In the oil space, a medium-term bearish trend in WTI futures remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. The move down that started Apr 23 signals the end of the correction between Apr 9 - 23. That cycle higher allowed an oversold condition to unwind. Attention is on $54.67, the Apr 9 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend and open $53.72, a 2.236 projection of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing. Key resistance to watch is $64.12, the 50-day EMA.
EU: Germany's Merz To Meet w/EU & NATO Leaders 9 May
New German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is set to travel to Brussels on Friday, 9 May, to mark Europe Day. He will meet with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and the two will hold a joint press conference at 1100CET (0500ET, 1000BST). Merz will also hold talks with European Council President Antonio Costa and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.
- Much has been made of Merz's intention to take a much more active role on the foreign policy stage compared to his predecessor Olaf Scholz. This is exemplified by his visit to the two other Weimar Triangle nations on his first full day in office, with a clear attempt to put the three largest defence contributors in the EU front and centre of the Union's security and defence decision-making process.
- As Politico noted in February, this shift could put him if not at odds then at least in some form of competition with VdL, despite both hailing from the centre-right Christian Democratic Union. Politico: "What may look like paper-thin policy differences between the two could well turn into a full-blown power struggle as von der Leyen grapples with Merz’s increasing interest in the EU scene. Von der Leyen hews to the political center, championing green reforms, gender parity and keeping Europe’s internal borders open. Merz, by contrast, is a classic West German conservative who wants deregulation, has spoken out against parity in government, and has no problem shutting Germany’s borders to its neighbors."
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M5) Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows
- RES 4: 113-22 1.382 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 22 price swing
- RES 3: 113-04 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg
- RES 2: 112-20+ High May 1 and key new-term resistance
- RES 1: 112-01+ High May 2
- PRICE: 111-08+ @ 11:25 BST May 7
- SUP 1: 110-27+ Low May 6
- SUP 2: 110-16+/109-08 Low Apr 22 / 11 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 110-00 100-dma
- SUP 4: 108-26+ 76.4% retracement of the Jan 13 - Apr 7 bull cycle
Treasury futures are trading closer to their recent lows and the latest pullback undermines the recent bull cycle. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA, and pierced support at the 50-day EMA, at 110-31. A clear break of this average would strengthen a bearish threat and expose 110-16+, Apr 22 low. For bulls, price needs to trade above key short-term resistance at 112-20+, the May 1 high, to reinstate a bullish theme.
