OIL PRODUCTS: Russian Refined Product Exports Fall to 1.89mb/d in October

The Conference Board's September survey showed a bigger weakening in consumer sentiment than had been expected. The headline reading fell to 94.2 (96.0 expected, 97.8 prior rev from 97.4), with present situation falling to 125.4 (132.4 prior, rev from 131.2) and expectations to 73.4 (74.7 prior rev from 74.8).

• These readings are mostly improved from the 2025 lows during the height of uncertainty over government tariff policy, but remain very weak on a historical basis.
• "Present situation" is just 0.1 point off the April low. Indeed the readings don't show any evidence of improvement across any major category of consumer despite the federal tax cut bill in July and less uncertainty over the tariff outlook.
• The deterioration also hasn't been as severe as in the University of Michigan survey. But either way, poor consumer sentiment hasn't really translated into actual consumer spending activity (real PCE is running at a 2-3% annualized clip in Q3), so we take the results with some caution.
• We did however note this mention of poor job conditions in the report: "Among consumers’ write-in responses, there was a rise in mentions of jobs and employment to a level unseen since August 2024. The comments were mostly negative, especially when referring to the current situation; there were a few positive comments which mostly conveyed hopes that things would get better." As we noted separately, the "labor differential" in this report hit a cycle low, indicative of consumers perceiving a weaker jobs market.
• Other concerning findings: "consumers’ views of their current financial situation recorded the largest one-month drop since we started to collect this data in July 2022. The share of consumers thinking that a recession is very likely over the next 12 months rose slightly in September, to the highest level since May. In addition, more consumers thought that the economy was already in recession."
• Buying plans for cars, services (especially travel-related) deteriorated, though there was little change in intentions to buy big-ticket items, and home purchasing plans rose to a 4-month high (mirroring the pullback in mortgage rates since August, we note) to relatively normal levels.

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