REFINING: Russia Ref Runs Rise in Early Dec: Bloomberg
Russia’s oil-processing volumes averaged more than 5.3m b/d in the first three days of December, driven largely by Rosneft’s decision to restart its Kuibyshev refinery after earlier drone attacks, Bloomberg said citing sources.
- That level is roughly 30,000 b/d higher than in the week of 20–26 November and marks the highest throughput since early August, before intensified Ukrainian strikes on Russian refining infrastructure.
- The figures do not reflect the impact of drone attacks on the Syzran refinery on Dec. 5 or the Ryazan plant on Dec. 6.
- Syzran has halted crude processing following the strike, Reuters reported.
- The 140k b/d Kuibyshev refinery, which was attacked in August, is currently averaging around 40,000 b/d after resuming operations in early December.
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PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $900M Mosaic Launched, Verizon Guidance Updated
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 11/10 $900M *Mosaic $500M +3Y +77, $400M 5Y +92
- 11/10 $Benchmark Verizon** 5pt: +7Y +90, +10Y +100, 20Y +110, 30Y +120, 40Y +130
- 11/10 $Benchmark Enterprise Products Operating 3Y Tap +70a, 5Y Tap+95a, 10Y tap +120a
- 11/10 $Benchmark Plains All American 5Y +130a, 10Y +170a
- 11/10 $Benchmark LyondellBasell 5Y +147, 10Y +185
- 11/10 $Benchmark Caterpillar 3Y +62.5a, 3Y SOFR
- 11/10 $Benchmark Flex 7Y +130a, 10Y +155a
- 11/10 $Benchmark AutoNation +3Y +115a
- 11/10 $700M Carpenter Tech 8.25NC3.25
- 11/10 $500M Illumina WNG 5Y +125a
- ** Note on Verizon is in the top 10 largest issuers on record TWICE. At number 1: $49B on Aug 11, 2013, followed by $25B over 9 tranches on March 11, 2021. Today's issuance may not be as robust, but an estimated $10B from Verizon over 5 tranches not unlikely.
- 11/10 $2.35B Applied Digital 5NC2 investor call, expected to launch Thursday
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Bear Threat Still Present
- RES 4: 114-02 High Oct 17 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 113-29 High Oct 22
- RES 2: 113-18+ High Oct 28
- RES 1: 113-02 High Nov 5& 7 and a key near-term resistance
- PRICE: 112-22 @ 17:02 GMT Nov 10
- SUP 1: 112-09+ Low Nov 5
- SUP 2: 112-08+ 38.2% retracement of May - Oct Upleg
- SUP 3: 112-07+/06 100-dma / Low Sep 25 and a reversal trigger
- SUP 4: 112-01+ Trendline support drawn from the May 22 low
Treasuries are trading below last week’s high and closer to recent lows. This highlights a bear threat and attention is on a reversal trigger at 112-06, the Sep 25 low, and the 100-DMA, at 112-07+. A clear break of these price points would expose a trendline support at 112-01+. The trendline is drawn from the May 22 low. Resistance to watch is 113-02, the Nov 5 and 7 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a potential bullish reversal.
US TSYS/SUPPLY: Preview 3Y Note Auction
Tsy futures are remain weaker - but off lows (TUZ5 at 104-04.75 -2 vs 104-03.75 low) ahead of the $58B 3Y note auction (91282CPK1) at 1300ET, WI is currently at 3.590%, 1.4bp cheap to last month's stop. Results will be available shortly after the competitive auctions closes at 1300ET.
- October auction recap: Tsys gained slightly, extend session highs (TYZ5 112-23.5) after $58B 3Y note auction (91282CPC9) stopped through again: drawing 3.576% high yield vs. 3.584% WI; 2.66x bid-to-cover vs. 2.73x prior.
- Peripheral stats: Indirect take-up receded to 62.70% vs. 74.24% prior; direct bidder take-up climbed to 26.58% from 17.39% prior; primary dealer take-up 10.72% vs. 8.37% prior.
