IDR: Rupiah Steadies as Markets Ready from Trump.
- USD/IDR is steady at 16,368 in Jakarta morning; versus Friday’s close of 16,365.
- The rupiah remains well above the 16,000 and moves in recent days has pulled the 20-day EMA higher to 16,214 and the 200-day EMA to 15,841. Next key technical level is 16,400, which it hasn’t been through since June last year.
- Bloomberg Asia dollar spot index is up by +0.09% and the Bloomberg Dollar spot index is down -0.11%.
- USD/IDR one-month implied volatility is up this morning to 7.51%, versus 7.2750% for Friday’s close.
- Indonesia's 10-year bond yield is at 7.15%.
- Indonesia 5 yr USD CDS at 75bps (Tuesday’s close 76bp, 5-year low 58bps in 2020).
Headlines
- Minister of Finance, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, has signalled on the implementation of the global minimum tax in 2025 in line with an international agreement signed by more than 140 countries on December 31, 2024 with a minimum tax rate of 15% for multi-nationals with turnover of at least EUR750m. (source: Indonesia Business Post).
- Jakarta still pursuing FTA with US under Trump (source: Jakarta Post)
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TRUDEAU SAYS `WE HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO'
- TRUDEAU SAYS `WE HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO'
- TRUDEAU WANTS GOVT TO PREPARE FOR NEW US ADMINISTRATION
- TRUDEAU DOESN'T ADDRESS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS LEADERSHIP
USDCAD TECHS: A Pullback Would Be Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 1.4537 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4356 @ 16:56 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: 1.4301 Low Dec 18
- SUP 2: 1.4174/4014 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 1.3928 Low Nov 25 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat. While price faded into the Thursday close, the recent breach of 1.4178, the Nov 26 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and this maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The latest rally opens 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4174, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Trend Structure
- RES 4: 0.6550 High Nov 25
- RES 3: 0.6501 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 1: 0.6337/6396 Low Dec 11 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6263 @ 16:55 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: 0.6199 Low Dec 19
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
The trend needle in AUDUSD continues to point south and this week’s fresh cycle lows and Wednesday’s sell-off, reinforce a bear theme. The move down maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. The break lower opens 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6396, the 20-day EMA.
