US-RUSSIA: Rubio-Will Talk w/Russia Today, Hope To Get +ve Answer On Ceasefire
Mar-12 11:56
Wires carrying comments from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio following the high-profile talks with Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia on 11 March. Says that the US will have contact with Russian officials on Wednesday (today) and that the 'Russian reaction is not known', but that 'We hope to have a positive answer from Russia'. Rubio says 'We strongly urge Russia to end all hostilities...there is no military solution to this conflict.'
- On talks with Ukraine says that 'We had conversations about territorial concessions', but that the 'bulk of conversation with Ukraine was what a negotiation process would look like'.
- Says that 'Ukraine needs a sufficient deterrent against future attacks', but that he 'would not couch the minerals deal as a security guarantee'. The acknowledgement of Kyiv's need for 'sufficient deterrent' will be seen as another possible sign that the US is moving towards providing long-standing support for Ukraine, but certainly not a concrete commitment.
- Rubio claims that 'European sanctions issue will be on the table', and that 'Europeans need to be involved in this regard.' European countries have demanded throughout that they must be involved in peace talks alongside Ukraine. Remains to be seen whether Rubio is indicating EU/Europe involvement in ceasefire talks or just pushing Brussels/London to end sanctions on Russia in exchange for a ceasefire.
- Livestream of Rubio's comments here.
Earlier, the Kremlin claimed that it would not decide on the proposed 30-day ceasefire until it had spoken with the US (see 'RUSSIA: Kremlin Spox-US-Ukraine Talks Debrief Needed Before Ceasefire Decision', 1001GMT).
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SCANDIS: EURSEK and EURNOK Extend Last Week's Selloffs
Feb-10 11:47
Scandi currencies outperform the G10 basket this morning, with EURNOK and EURSEK each 0.4% lower, extending last week’s selloffs.
- Bearish momentum in EURSEK has been bolstered by a cross of the 50- and 200-day EMAs, with the cross now through Friday’s low and eyeing the Sep 27th low at 11.2450. Speeches from Riksbank’s Seim, Bunge and Jansson headline the remainder of this week’s Swedish calendar.
- NOK strength comes following the higher-than-expected CPI-ATE reading this morning (2.8% Y/Y vs 2.6% cons, 2.7% prior) and the >4.50% rally in European natural gas futures.
- Our Commodities team point to the risk to gas storage from a drop in temperatures and expected boost to heating demand in NW Europe later this week as drivers of today’s TTF rally.
- EURNOK has pierced 11.6000, a notable pivot level going back to mid-2023, which closely coincided with the Dec 4th low (11.5998) and the 61.8% retracement of the June-August '24 rally (11.5953). This exposes the November 25th low at 11.5192 on the downside.
- Tomorrow sees the release of Q4 GDP (consensus and Norges Bank see mainland GDP at 0.3% Q/Q), before Norges Bank Governor Wolden Bache’s annual address on Thursday evening.
EQUITIES: Large Santander Put Option
Feb-10 11:43
BDS2 (17th Apr) 5p, bought for 0.08 and 0.09 in ~29.4k.
US TSYS: Unfazed By Latest Trump Tariffs
Feb-10 11:43
- Treasuries sit mildly twist steeper from Friday’s close, giving a sense of downplaying Trump’s weekend steel and aluminum tariffs announcement.
- That being said, there could still be sensitivity to upcoming details on those tariffs. Today’s docket meanwhile is particularly light although NY Fed inflation expectations take greater prominence than usual considering the partisanship clouding the U.Mich readings.
- Cash yields range from 0.5bp lower (front-end/belly) to 1.5bp higher (30s).
- 2s10s sits at 21.6bp (+0.8bp) vs overnight lows of 19bp but it’s still one of the lowest since mid-to-late December.
- TYH5 has kept to narrow ranges, currently at 109-05+ (-02) on modest cumulative volumes of 305k.
- The short-term trend needle points north, with resistance seen at 110-00 (Feb 7 high, snap reaction to NFP print) before 110-14 (Dec 14 high). To the downside, support at 108-20+ (Feb 4 low).
- Data: NY Fed inflation expectations Jan (1100ET)
- Bill issuance: US Tsy $84B 13W & $72B 26W Bill auctions (1130ET)
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