EU TRANSPORTATION: Royal Schiphol/Amsterdam; S&P upgrade

(LUCSHI; A2 Pos/A+ Stable now)
+2 uplift for Dutch Gov. (AAA) ownership

S&P flags the avg. 37% increase in airport charges over next 3 years (+41% in 2025, +5% in '26, -7.5% in '27) alongside the lower than expected dividend policy (30% pay-out of NI - paid none LY) as enough to keep leverage above the FFO to Debt 12% threshold. The elevated capex (co had said prev. ~€1b/yr, S&P has €6b over 5yrs) still sees S&P expecting negative FOCF over next the years (was -€373m LY - pre the tariff increases) - we do see likelihood of supply (€450m of cash on hand). In line with a capacity constrained hub airport, S&P expects no impact to demand on Tariffs.

S&P notes part of the reason Schiphol is able to increase charges is to recover past traffic weakness. This volume protection from regulator (when tariff falls below/above certain threshold) is also in the Italian airports ADRIT (Rome) & SEASPA (Milan). All three also benefit from operating under a dual-till framework (only aviation revenue considered when setting charges).

Schiphol targets A+ ratings with at least one agency - and has that now. On a standalone basis it is now flat to highest rated airport ADP.

We often and still do see value on Avinor (A+, Norway) and sub-benchmark SEASPA 32s (A-flat, Milan). Compression leaves airports screening relative value; easyJet 31s trades flat to SEASPA.