HUNGARY: Retail Sales Rise 2.5% Y/Y in November, Orban Shares Letter From Trump
- Hungary's retail trade rose 2.5% y/y in November versus +3.1% in October, according to the Central Statistical Office. Sales of food, beverages and tobacco rose 2.6% y/y compared to a prior +1.2% while sales of non-food products rose 4.6% y/y from a previous +5.2%.
- In a letter from Donald Trump to Viktor Orban – posted on Orban’s Facebook page this morning – the US president wrote that the Hungarian prime minister's "bold leadership serves as an example to the rest of the world." The letter was dated Dec 10 and came after a meeting between the two leaders at the White House. "I look forward to further deepening cooperation in the areas of defense, energy and illegal migration," it reads.
- No major data releases are scheduled for today. CPI inflation data for December provides the highlight next week, while industrial production figures for November and the December NBH minutes are also due.
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Historical bullets
USDCAD TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 1.4140 High Nov 5 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.4051 High Nov 28
- RES 2: 1.3939/3971 Low Nov 28 / 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3888 Low Oct 29
- PRICE: 1.3854 @ 08:05 GMT Dec 10
- SUP 1: 1.3800 Low Dec 08
- SUP 2: 1.3769 61.8% retracement of the Jun 16 - Nov 6 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 1.3727 Low Sep17
- SUP 4: 1.3682 76.4% retracement of the Jun 16 - Nov 6 bull cycle
A bear theme in USDCAD remains intact and is trading just ahead of its recent lows. The pair has breached the base of a bull channel drawn from the Jul 23 low. The break highlights a stronger bear cycle and signals scope for an extension towards 1.3769 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3971, 20-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bull-Wave Intact
- RES 4: 0.6723 High Oct 21 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6707 High Sep 17 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.6660 High Sep 18
- RES 1: 0.6654 High Dec 12
- PRICE: 0.6648 @ 07:58 GMT Dec 10
- SUP 1: 0.6580/6559 High Nov 13 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6517 Low Nov 27
- SUP 3: 0.6466/21 Low Nov 26 / 21
- SUP 4: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
A strong impulsive bull wave in AUDUSD remains intact, signalling scope for a continuation near-term. Note that moving average studies have recently crossed and are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current conditions. The pair has pierced 0.6640, 76.4% of the Sep 17 - Nov 21 bear leg. A clear breach of this level would open 0.6707, the Sep 17 high and key resistance. Key support to watch is at 0.6559, 20-day EMA.
GILTS: Opening Calls
Gilt Opening Calls, 91.02/91.05.
