USDCAD pierced the 50-day EMA on Monday but has since pulled back. A firm break of this average, at 1.3442, would undermine the recent bearish theme. This would expose 1.3571, the Nov 10 high, where a break would also signal scope for a stronger recovery and open 1.3628, trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 13 high. Key support and the bear trigger is at 1.3226, the Nov 15 low. A break would resume bearish activity.
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USDCAD pierced the 20-day EMA support Tuesday, and is extending losses. Tuesday’s close is a bearish development and works against the broader uptrend. For now, the recovery from 1.3503, Oct 10 high, is reinforcing bullish conditions. Moving average studies also highlight an uptrend and 1.3838, Sep 30 high has been cleared. A clear break and close below the 20-day EMA would suggest scope for a pullback towards 1.3503, Oct 4 low.
Tsys holding strong gains after the close. Tsys had gapped to new session highs early Wed after the BOC hiked less than expected: 50bp to 3.75% vs. 75bp to 4.0% as "hikes beginning to weigh on growth" BOC Gov Macklem. Tsy yields were already extending lows as softer data cools expectations of more hawkish year end policy expectations - before 30YY fell to 4.1401% low on the annc.
The EURJPY uptrend remains intact and the latest sharp pullback appears to be a correction. The cross has found strong support below 144.18, the 20-day EMA and key support has been defined at 143.80, Monday’s low. A continuation higher would open last Friday’s high of 148.40. This is the bull trigger and a break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Moving average studies continue to highlight a bullish backdrop.