EURJPY TECHS: Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 121.93 76.4% of the Dec 5 ‘24 - Mar 14 bear leg (cont)       
• RES 3: 121.43 1.618 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing    
• RES 2: 121.00 High Feb 7 (cont) and a key resistance  
• RES 1: 120.65 1.382 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing               
• PRICE: 120.10@ Close May 5 
• SUP 1: 119.60/119.33 Low Apr 23 / 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 118.09 Low Apr 14       
• SUP 3: 117.28 Low Apr 10 
• SUP 4: 116.06 Low Apr 9    

BTP futures remain in consolidation mode. A bull cycle is intact and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains. The recent break of a key resistance at 120.39, the Feb 28 high, reinforces a bullish theme. Sights are on 120.65 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support to watch lies at 119.33, the 20-day EMA. The contract is overbought, a pullback would unwind this trend condition. 

• RES 4: $78.10 - High Jan 15  
• RES 3: $75.81 - High Feb 20
• RES 2: $74.63 - High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $64.46/67.38 - 20- and 50-day EMA values           
• PRICE: $59.43 @ 06:44 BST May 5
• SUP 1: $58.00 -Low April 9 and the bear trigger     
• SUP 2: $56.29 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $55.10 - 2.382 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 4: $54.00 - Round number support

A bearish theme in Brent futures remains intact and recent weakness reinforces current conditions. Last week’s price action confirms recent gains between Apr 9 - 23 as corrective that allowed an oversold condition to unwind. Sights are on $56.29 a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key resistance to monitor is at the 50-day EMA, at $67.38. Initial resistance is at $64.46, the 20-day EMA.

Austria, Germany, France, Spain and Ireland all look to hold auctions this week. We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week of E26.1bln, down from E35.0bln last week.

For the full document with a look ahead to the next two weeks of issuance, click here.

• This morning, Austria will look to hold an RAGB auction. On offer will be a combined E1.725bln of the on-the-run 10-year 2.95% Feb-35 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A3HU25) alongside the 20-year 3.15% Jun-44 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A0VRQ6)
• Also today, Germany will come to the market with E4.5bln of the 2.40% Apr-30 Bobl (ISIN: DE000BU25042) on offer.
• Tomorrow, France will look to hold a LT OAT auction (rather than on the usual Thursday due to the VE day public holiday). On offer will be a combined E10-12bln of the on-the-run 10-year .20% May-35 OAT (ISIN: FR001400X8V5), the 1.25% May-38 OAT (ISIN: FR0014009O62) and the 4.50% Apr-41 OAT (ISIN: FR0010773192).
• On Thursday, Spain will hold a Bono/Obli/ObliEi auction with a combined E5.5-6.5bln of conventionals on offer. On offer will be the 3-year on-the-run 2.40% May-28 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012O59), the on-the-run 5-year 2.70% Jan-30 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012O00) and the on-the-run 30-year 4.00% Oct-54 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012M93). Alongside these, E250-750mln nominal of the 1.00% Nov-30 Obli-Ei (ISIN: ES00000127C8) will be on offer.
• To conclude the week, also on Thursday, Ireland will look to hold an auction. Due to the public holiday on Monday, the details will be announced this morning.

NOMINAL FLOWS: This week sees a single redemption of E1.0bln from a formerly 5-year Lithuanian bond. Coupon payments for the week total E0.4bln. This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E24.8bln versus negative E0.9bln last week.