US TSYS: Repo Reference Rates
Apr-29 12:05
- Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 0.28%, $892B
- Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 0.30%, $337B
- Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 0.30%, $327B
- (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)
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What to Watch: ADP, Geopolitical Headline Risk Ongoing
Mar-30 13:16
US FI markets trading steady to mixed on robust volumes (TYM2>560k), curves steepening with short end outperforming, 5s and 7s still inverted vs. 10s: -8.082, -8.573 resp. Bonds off early early overnight highs, near recent low of 148-12 at 148-17.
- Russia/Ukraine headline risk ongoing, neither side sees breakthrough in latest peace talks. Russia reaching out to other countries: 'No Ceiling For China-Russia Cooperation': Comments from Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi hitting wires following meeting w/Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov. Says China willing to work w/ Russia to take China-Russia ties to a higher level in 'new era' under guidance of countries' leaders.
- Data on tap:
- Ahead Fri's NFP, focus on ADP Employment (475k, 450k) at 0815ET
- Followed by GDP, PCE at 0830:
- GDP Annualized QoQ (7.0%, 7.0%)
- GDP Price Index (7.1%, 7.1%)
- Core PCE QoQ (5.0%, 5.0%)
- Personal Consumption (3.1%, 3.1%)
- Fed speakers:
- Richmond Fed Barkin opening remarks at rural eco-event at 0830ET
- San Fran Fed George at Economic Club, NY, Q&A 1300ET
- US Tsy auctions $30B 119D bill auction (912796X46) at 1130ET
- US President Biden: latest on COVID-19 at 1330ET.
RIKSBANK: Hawkish comments from Ohlsson (but he is a hawk)
Mar-30 13:16
- Riksbank Deputy Governor Ohlsson is reported to have said that "everything we did in February is obsolete" and that "we are starting from scratch right now." (Source: Bbg)
- These comments are on the hawkish side, although recall that Breman said last week that "a rate hike in June can't be ruled out" and she also said that the decisions taken in February are "now a thing of the past".
- Ohlsson and Breman both hawkishly dissented in February, joined by Floden in what was a 3-3 vote with Governor Ingves breaking the deadlock and stopping reinvestments from being slowed.
- Against this backdrop its perhaps not too surprising that we are seeing these comments from the hawks but it is still Ingves' comments that remain the key to more hawkish action (with the Skingsley and Jansson both seemingly some far away from tighter policy - albeit they haven't spoken recently).
- Ingves' last commens on 16 March were that rate hikes would be needed sooner than 2024 (as the last MPR forecast) but that it was too soon to say what happens to the balance sheet. He also wouldnt be drawn on when he now expected the first hike to be.
- EURSEK hasn't really reacted to Ohlsson's comments today.
US EURODLR FUTURES: BLOCKs, Greens and Blues
Mar-30 13:16
- 1,000 Blue packs (EDM5-EDH6) steady at 0729:08ET
- 1,000 Green packs (EDM4-EDH5) -0.0075 at 0720:54ET
