EURJPY TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

Jul-15 19:00
  • RES 4: 144.28 High Jun 28 and key resistance
  • RES 3: 142.37 High Jul 5
  • RES 2: 141.40 Low Jun 24
  • RES 1: 139.87 High Jul 15
  • PRICE: 139.81 @ 16:39 BST Jul 15
  • SUP 1: 136.87 Low Jul 8
  • SUP 2: 136.25 Low May 30
  • SUP 3: 135.40 76.4% retracement of the May 12 - Jun 28 climb
  • SUP 4: 134.81 3.0% 10-dma envelope

EURJPY remains above its recent lows. The cross still appears vulnerable following the reversal from 144.28, the Jun 28 high. Price remains below the 50-day EMA and has recently traded below support at 137.85. A clear breach of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and open 136.25, the May 30 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 139.79, the 20-day EMA ahead of 142.37, the July 5 high.

Historical bullets

US TSYS: Dovish, Then Hawkish, Reaction

Jun-15 18:08

A knee-jerk move lower in rates, but then a recovery. 2Y yields flying now, dropped about 7bp after the decision then rose by 16bp from the lows. Curve flatter, 2s10s inverts briefly.

STIR: 75bp Fed Hikes Fully Priced For June, 287bp For Rest Of 2022

Jun-15 17:50

A quick check on futures-implied rates going into the FOMC decision:

  • A 75bp hike is basically exactly priced for June, with just under 100% chance of a further 75bp raise in July.
  • Also implied are further 50bp hikes in September and November, with a 25bp hike fully priced for December but about 50% chance of 50bp. That's a total of 287bp in hikes from here to a rate just under 3.7% (vs about 0.82% currently).
  • Terminal Fed funds seen just under 4% by mid-2023, with about 50bp of cuts by early 2024.

STIR: Major Overnight Rates Steady On Day Before FOMC

Jun-15 17:36
New York Fed EFFR for prior session (rate, chg from prev day):
* Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 0.83%, no change, volume: $81B
* Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 0.82%, no change, volume: $248B