EURJPY remains above its recent lows. The cross still appears vulnerable following the reversal from 144.28, the Jun 28 high. Price remains below the 50-day EMA and has recently traded below support at 137.85. A clear breach of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and open 136.25, the May 30 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 139.79, the 20-day EMA ahead of 142.37, the July 5 high.
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A knee-jerk move lower in rates, but then a recovery. 2Y yields flying now, dropped about 7bp after the decision then rose by 16bp from the lows. Curve flatter, 2s10s inverts briefly.
A quick check on futures-implied rates going into the FOMC decision:
| New York Fed EFFR for prior session (rate, chg from prev day): |
| * Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 0.83%, no change, volume: $81B |
| * Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 0.82%, no change, volume: $248B |