EURUSD TECHS: Remains Bearish Inside Its Bear Channel
- RES 4: 1.0034 Bear channel top drawn from the Feb 10 high
- RES 3: 0.9892 20-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.9852 High Sep 23
- RES 1: 0.9760 High Sep 29
- PRICE: 0.9741 @ 15:30 BST Sep 29
- SUP 1: 0.9536 Low Sep 28
- SUP 2: 0.9501 1.382 projection of the Aug 10 - Sep 6 - 12 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.9495 Bear channel base drawn from the Feb 10 high
- SUP 4: 0.9442 1.50 projection of the Aug 10 - Sep 6 - 12 price swing
EURUSD short-term gains are considered corrective and trend signals continue to point south. Fresh trend lows this week reinforce bearish conditions, signalling scope for a continuation. The move lower also maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Price is approaching the base of a bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. The channel intersects at 0.9495 and represents a key support.
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EURUSD TECHS: Consolidation Mode
- RES 4: 1.0327 High Aug 12
- RES 3: 1.0228 Channel top drawn from the Feb 10 high
- RES 2: 1.0193 High Aug 18
- RES 1: 1.0090 High Aug 26 and key near-term resistance
- PRICE: 1.0030 @ 17:02 BST Aug 30
- SUP 1: 0.9883 1.764 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
- SUP 2: 0.9800 Round number support
- SUP 3: 0.9785 2.00 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.9690 Channel base drawn from the Feb 10 high
EURUSD remains in a range though and is consolidating. The downtrend remains intact. Recent weakness resulted in breach of former key support at 0.9952, the Jul 14 low. The break confirmed an extension lower inside the bear channel (drawn from the Feb 10 high) and a resumption of the primary downtrend. The focus is on 0.9883 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm short-term resistance is seen at 1.0090, the Aug 26 high.
US TSYS: Eurodollar/SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup
Better overall volumes, mixed trade as underlying rates see-saw on volatile first half, short end buffeted by renewed speculation over 75bps hike in September as hawkish ECB policy talk filters through US markets. Highlight trade:
- SOFR Options:
- -10,000 SFRZ2 96.50/97.00 call spds, 6.75
- -10,000 SFRV2 96.12/96.25 put spds 5.5 vs. 96.225/0.12%
- Block, 2,500 short Mar SOFR 96.75/short Sep'23 97.00 put spds, 15.0
- 4,500 SFRH3 93.00/94.00/95.00 put flys
- +10,000 SFRM3 95.62/95.75/96.00 put flys, 5.5
- +7,500 SFRZ2 96.87/97.00 call spds, 1.0
- Eurodollar Options:
- +5,000 Red Sep'23 95.25/95.50/96.00 put flys, 12.25
- 2,300 Green Sep 97.25/98.25 call spds
- 4,500 Green Dec 95.50/96.00 put spds
- -4,000 short Sep 96.00/96.12 put spds, 5.75
- 5,000 short Sep 96.25/96.50 1x2 call spds
- Treasury Options:
- 2,000 TYX 114/120.5 strangles
- 5,000 TYV 113/114 put spds, 3
- -5,000 FVZ 111.5 puts 130-129
- 2,125 TYZ 114/117 3x2 put spds , 3net
- 2,000 FVZ 111 puts, 110
- +3,000 TYX 120 calls, 28-27
- 2,000 TYX 120.5 calls, 21
- 9,000 TYV 120 calls, 10-9
- +1,500 TYV 117.5 straddles, 159
- 3,000 TYZ 122/123 call spds, 5
- 2,000 TYV 113/115.25 put spds
- 2,000 TYV 115.75/117.25 put spds vs. 118.5 calls
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
- EUR/USD: Sep02 $0.9900(E1.5bln), $1.0000-05(E1.1bln), $1.0150-55(E2.3bln); Sep05 $1.0100(E1.1bln)
- USD/JPY: Sep02 Y138.00($1.2bln)
- GBP/USD: Sep02 $1.3360(Gbp1.0bln)
- EUR/JPY: Sep02 Y139.55-57(E1.4bln)
- AUD/USD: Sep02 $0.6994-10(A$1.1bln)
- USD/CNY: Sep02 Cny6.7500($2.0bln)
