GOLD: Release Of US Delayed Data Could Drive Fed Easing, Political Risks Persist
Gold prices have not only held onto Monday’s 2.9% gain but have risen further despite a stronger US dollar (BBDXY +0.1%) as risk appetite has been more stable. Bullion is up 0.7% to $4144.5/oz after a high of $4149.0, approaching resistance at $4161.4, 22 October high. It has found significant support from progress to end the US government shutdown, which will allow data to be released again. Clarity on the economy and the outlook is key to the 10 December Fed decision.
- With the support of a number of Democrats, the bill to provide government funding until 30 January passed the Senate. The House of Reps will vote on Wednesday EST and if it passes it will go to President Trump to be signed. He has voiced his support. It could then take a few days for operations to resume.
- With funding only assured to the end of January, another impasse next year is clearly possible. A vote by December on extending healthcare benefits was promised to Democrats, which could again be a hurdle to further financing.
- Silver is up 0.9% to $50.97 after reaching $51.142, breaching initial resistance at $51.071, a Fibonacci retracement point.
- Equities are mixed with the KOSPI up 1.0%, Hang Seng down 0.2% but S&P e-mini flat. Oil prices are lower with WTI -0.2% to $59.99/bbl. Copper is down 0.4%.
- The US bond market is shut for Veterans Day but equities will be open. Later ECB President Lagarde speaks. US October NFIB small business optimism, UK labour market data and euro area /German November ZEW print.
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US: Trump Oval Office Announcement Underway Shortly
US President Donald Trump is shortly due to deliver an announcement in the White House Oval Office. LIVESTREAM The announcement is expected to relate to drug pricing and could follow a similar template to a recent pledge from Pfizer.
- The announcement will be Trump's first press remarks since a market-moving Truth Social statement earlier today in which Trump suggested calling off a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and raising tariffs on China in response to new export controls from Beijing on rare earths. See earlier bullets here and here.
RATINGS: Moody's Completes Periodic Review Of Belgium, No Rating Action
No ratings actions for Belgium from Moody's, which is quoted in a press release on Bloomberg: "Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Belgium and other ratings that are associated with this issuer. The review was conducted through a rating committee held on 2 October 2025 in which we reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the context of the relevant principal methodology(ies), and recent developments. This publication does not announce a credit rating action and is not an indication of whether or not a credit rating action is likely in the near future."
- There had been some speculation there could be a ratings action - MNI wrote Thursday: "* Moody's on Belgium (Current rating Aa3, Outlook Negative): We expect Moody's to maintain their current stance in the absence of 2026 budget details."
MACRO ANALYSIS: US Macro Week Ahead: No CPI, But Plenty Of Pre-Blackout FedSpeak
Below is the week’s data schedule, with MNI’s annotation of whether or not data will be postponed.
- As we went to press, the Fed announced that next week's Industrial Production data will be postponed (was due to be published next Friday Oct 17) as the data “incorporate a range of data from other government agencies, the publication of which has been delayed as a result of the federal government shutdown.”
- We won’t be getting September CPI as scheduled on Oct 15, but at least the BLS announced it will publish the data on Oct 24.
- As such next week we’ll be looking at some under-covered data points, including the Redbook weekly and Chicago Fed’s CARTS retail sales data (in lieu of the Census Bureau retail sales report), with a little more focus than usual on regional Fed manufacturing indices (NY, Philadelphia).
- Once again, the dearth of tier-one data leaves Fed commentary in focus ahead of the pre-FOMC blackout period: highlights for us are Philadelphia Fed President Paulson making her first comments on monetary policy on Monday since being appointed in the summer, while as always Chair Powell bears watching on Tuesday (we also hear from Bowman, Waller, Collins, Miran, Schmid, and Musalem).
- Additionally we get the latest Beige Book which was already key given the FOMC was already increasingly focused on anecdotal information as it attempts to navigate murky economic waters.
