US DATA: Redbook Sales Remain Solid At Start Of Q2

• RES 4: 0.8818 High Nov 26 ‘25
• RES 3: 0.8806 76.4% retracement of the Nov 14 - Feb 4 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8739/89 High Mar 3 / High Feb 27 and key S/T resistance
• RES 1: 0.8654/8696 High Mar 13 / 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 0.8636 @ 16:06 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: 0.8610 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 0.8597 Low Aug 14
• SUP 3: 0.8578 Low Jul 2 ‘25
• SUP 4: 0.8544 50.0% retracement of the Dec ‘24 - Nov ‘25 bull phase 

A bear cycle in EURGBP remains in play. Today’s initial sell-off has resulted in a print below support at 0.8613, the Feb 4 low and bear trigger. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bear theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement of the Dec ‘24 - Nov ‘25 bull phase. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.8789, the Feb 27 high. The first important resistance to watch is the 50-day EMA at 0.8698. 

• Risk sentiment kicked off the new week with a positive note, weaker crude prices (WTI -4.86 at 93.85, still elevated since the start of the Iran war, but off last week's near $120 high) underpinning stocks through Monday's session.
• Information Technology sector shares led the broad based rally, semiconductor and hardware makers outperforming with Sandisk and Ciena Corp climbing near 8%, while the following hold 4-5% in lte trade: Micron Technology, Seagate Technology, Western Digital, Teradyne, Intel, Super Micro Computer and Microchip Technology.
• Of note, Meta shares held 2.38% higher after announcing a $27B investment in AI computing capacity from Nebius Group over 5 years, Nebius trades over 15.25% in late trade.
• Consumer Staples and Health Care sector shares led declines in the second half, Bio-Techne Corp and Baxter International weighing on the latter.

A new survey from Politico has found that, “Swaths of the public in Canada, Germany, France and the UK have soured on the US, driven by President Donald Trump’s foreign policy decisions.” The survey found that "respondents in those four allied countries believe it is better to depend on China than the US following Trump’s turbulent return to office. That appears to be driven by Trump’s disruption, not by a newfound stability in China..."

• Politico notes, “Respondents in these countries increasingly see China as a more dependable partner than the U.S. and believe the Asian economic colossus is leading on advanced technologies, including artificial intelligence. Critically, Europeans surveyed see it as possible to reduce reliance on the U.S. but harder to reduce reliance on China — suggesting newfound entanglements that could drastically tip the balance of global power away from the West.”

Figure 1: Share of respondents who say it's either better to depend on China or on the US under Donald Trump, split by country

Source: Politico