US DATA: Redbook Retail Sales Data Maintain Robustness Through Mid-September
Lost somewhat in the fray after Tuesday's stronger than expected Census Bureau retail sales report: the Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index release showed a 6.3% Y/Y rise in the week ending September 13. That follows a 6.6% rise the prior week and brought the month-to-date gain to 6.5%, a little above retailers' targeted 6.3%.
- We note that the Redbook report has shown a clear acceleration in retail sales growth throughout the summer, in spite of weak consumer confidence surveys throughout. To be sure, this (as with the Census Bureau series) is in nominal terms and goods inflation may be overstating the improvement, but the recent pickup in Redbook (which purports to account for 80% of retail
sales) has been a good guide to solid advance retail sales gains the last couple of months. - The anecdotes of the Redbook report intriguingly cite a "lack of clear themes in consumer behavior": As the back-to-school season transitions into fall, sales have been inconsistent due to a lack of clear themes in consumer behavior. While back-to-school shopping has remained sporadic, buyers have shown some interest in fall apparel. In contrast, sales of basic commodities and household goods have helped to sustain business, as consumers increasingly cut back on discretionary spending. The unusually warm weather across much of the country has also impacted demand for fall clothing, which is typically a staple during this time of year. Retailers are hopeful that shoppers will engage with their fall offerings, but this is likely to depend on a shift in weather conditions and a more earnest start to the season.
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EUROZONE DATA: Indeed Wage Tracker Continues To Soften; But Data Has Caveats
The trend in Eurozone wage growth remains to the downside, according to Indeed job posting data for July (released on Friday). The 3mma of Y/Y Eurozone wage growth eased to 2.53% Y/Y, down from 2.64% in June for the lowest since late 2021. While a useful monthly series to track, it’s worth noting that the Indeed wage tracker’s importance to markets has declined since the ECB started publishing its own forward-looking negotiated wages tracker. Overall, the signals from Indeed are broadly consistent with the ECB tracker excluding one-off payments.
- A reminder that French job postings make up the bulk of the observations for the Eurozone-wide index (see chart), followed by Germany. Spanish and Italian samples are much smaller, and the Italian data often (questionably) reports wage growth of 0.00% Y/Y.
- With these caveats in mind, July 3mma Y/Y Indeed tracker wage growth eased to 3.35% in Germany (vs 3.49% prior) and 1.84% in France (vs 1.87% prior).
- The ECB’s Q2 negotiated wages series is released on Friday. It is expected to rebound from the soft 2.45% Y/Y seen in Q1. The ECB’s wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments (which best tracks the actual negotiated wages series) points to a rebound of ~4.0% Y/Y.
SONIA OPTIONS: SFIZ5 Call Fly Liquidation
From a little earlier: SFIZ5 96.40/96.65/96.90 call fly, sold for 1.25 in 2k (suggested liquidation).
US: Trump Wants To Remove Mail-in Ballots
Latest from President Trump on Truth social regarding mail-in ballots (MNI emphasis underlined):
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
I am going to lead a movement to get rid of MAIL-IN BALLOTS, and also, while we’re at it, Highly “Inaccurate,” Very Expensive, and Seriously Controversial VOTING MACHINES, which cost Ten Times more than accurate and sophisticated Watermark Paper, which is faster, and leaves NO DOUBT, at the end of the evening, as to who WON, and who LOST, the Election. We are now the only Country in the World that uses Mail-In Voting. All others gave it up because of the MASSIVE VOTER FRAUD ENCOUNTERED. WE WILL BEGIN THIS EFFORT, WHICH WILL BE STRONGLY OPPOSED BY THE DEMOCRATS BECAUSE THEY CHEAT AT LEVELS NEVER SEEN BEFORE, by signing an EXECUTIVE ORDER to help bring HONESTY to the 2026 Midterm Elections. Remember, the States are merely an “agent” for the Federal Government in counting and tabulating the votes. They must do what the Federal Government, as represented by the President of the United States, tells them, FOR THE GOOD OF OUR COUNTRY, to do. With their HORRIBLE Radical Left policies, like Open Borders, Men Playing in Women’s Sports, Transgender and “WOKE” for everyone, and so much more, Democrats are virtually Unelectable without using this completely disproven Mail-In SCAM. ELECTIONS CAN NEVER BE HONEST WITH MAIL IN BALLOTS/VOTING, and everybody, IN PARTICULAR THE DEMOCRATS, KNOWS THIS. I, AND THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, WILL FIGHT LIKE HELL TO BRING HONESTY AND INTEGRITY BACK TO OUR ELECTIONS. THE MAIL-IN BALLOT HOAX, USING VOTING MACHINES THAT ARE A COMPLETE AND TOTAL DISASTER, MUST END, NOW!!! REMEMBER, WITHOUT FAIR AND HONEST ELECTIONS, AND STRONG AND POWERFUL BORDERS, YOU DON’T HAVE EVEN A SEMBLANCE OF A COUNTRY. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!!! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERIC
