EURUSD TECHS: Recovery Stalls, But Could Rally Further
- RES 4: 1.0494 Bull channel resistance drawn from the Feb 10 high
- RES 3: 1.0449 High Jul 5
- RES 2: 1.0359 Low Jun 15
- RES 1: 1.0258 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.0210 @ 15:28 BST Jul 20
- SUP 1: 1.0120 Low Jul 19
- SUP 2: 1.0064/0.9952 Low Jul 18 / 14
- SUP 3: 0.9944 1.618 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
- SUP 4: c0.9883 1.764 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
EURUSD stalled somewhat on Wednesday, touching a new recovery high at 1.0273 before stalling and slipping into the Wednesday close. Attention remains on resistance at 1.0258, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of the average would strengthen bullish conditions and signal scope for an extension within the bear channel. The channel is drawn from the Feb 10 high. Clearance of the 20-day EMA would open 1.0359, the Jun 15 low. Initial support is at 1.0120, Tuesday’s intraday low.
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EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Gains Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 3902.00 High Mar 29
- RES 3: 3840.00 High Jun 6
- RES 2: 3667.20 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 3567.00 High Jun 16
- PRICE: 3469.00 @ 05:30 BST Jun 21
- SUP 1: 3384.00 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 3300.00 Round number support
- SUP 3: 3241.70 1.382 proj of the Mar 29 - May 10 - Jun 6 price swing
- SUP 4: 3189.10 1.50 proj of the Mar 29 - May 10 - Jun 6 price swing
The EUROSTOXX 50 futures primary trend direction remains down and short-term gains are considered corrective. The move lower last week resulted in a breach of key support at 3456.00, May 10 low. This reinforces bearish conditions and signals potential for weakness towards 3300.00. Moving average studies are in a bear mode condition, highlighting current trend conditions. Initial firm resistance is seen at 3667.20, the 50-day EMA.
SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Bear Flag
- RES 4: 109.180 High Jun 3 and 9
- RES 3: 108.715 High Jun 10
- RES 2: 108.738 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 108.495 High Jun 13
- PRICE: 108.075 @ 05:24 BST Jun 21
- SUP 1: 107.885/107.705 Low Jun 17 / Low Jun 16 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: 107.662 3.50 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
- SUP 3: 107.589 3.618 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
- SUP 4: 107.430 Low Jul 4 2011 (cont)
Schatz futures remain in a downtrend, although the contract is in consolidation mode. This pause appears to be a bear flag formation - a pattern that reinforces bearish conditions. Moving average studies are in a bear mode too highlighting current trend conditions. This suggests scope for a continuation of the downtrend. The focus is on 107.662 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 108.738, the 20-day EMA.
US TSY OPTIONS: TYQ2 115.00 Puts Blocked
Latest block trade lodged at 05:10:20 London/00:10:20 NY:
- TYQ2 115.00 puts 2,500 lots blocked at 0-59 delta -40%. Looks like a buyer.
