SOUTH KOREA: Recession Avoided, But Growth Momentum Still Eases
Q1 GDP printed a touch above market expectations, coming in at +0.3% q/q (+0.2%q/q expected). This allowed South Korea to avoid two-consecutive quarters of negative growth (Q4 was -0.4% q/q). Still, y/y momentum eased to +0.8% (slightly below +0.9% expected and versus 1.3% prior).
- This is the softest pace of y/y growth since the end of 2020, see the chart below.
- Looking at the detail, consumer spending rose 0.5% q/q, while exports rose in q/q terms, but slowed further in y/y terms. Construction spending was positive but momentum slowed. Business investment was a big drag, -4.0% q/q.
- Weaker sentiment in housing and the lagged impact of higher rates may still constrain consumption going forward.
- By industry we had 8 out of 14 record negative q/q growth. Manufacturing rebounded +2.6%, but is still down -3.3% in y/y terms.
- All in all, the data is unlikely to shift the narrative of a still challenging growth backdrop for South Korea. The central bank recently noting that growth may be below its 1.6% 2023 forecast.
Fig 1: South Korea GDP Growth
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
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USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: 1.4000 Psychological round number
- RES 3: 1.3977 High Oct 13
- RES 2: 1.3898 High Oct 14
- RES 1: 1.3814/3862 High Mar 15 / 10 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.3764 @ 15:52 GMT Mar 24
- SUP 1: 1.3631 Low Mar 23
- SUP 2: 1.3589 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3515 Low Feb 22
- SUP 4: 1.3442 Low Feb 20 / 21
The recent move lower in USDCAD is considered corrective and this has allowed a recent overbought condition to unwind. A key support area to watch lies at 1.3589, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback. On the upside, the bull trigger has been defined at 1.3862, the Mar 10 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend and open 1.3977, the Oct 13 high.
AUDUSD TECHS: Correction Still In Play
- RES 4: 0.6865 High Feb 22
- RES 3: 0.6824 High Feb 24
- RES 2: 0.6784 High Mar 1
- RES 1: 0.6769 50-day EMA and a key resistance
- PRICE: 0.6647 @ 15:48 GMT Mar 24
- SUP 1: 0.6625 Low Mar 24
- SUP 2: 0.6590/47 Low Mar 15 / 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
- SUP 3: 0.6500 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6425 2.00 projection of the Feb 2 - 6 - 14 price swing
The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish, however, the bull cycle that started Mar 10, remains in play now. The move higher is considered corrective. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this exposes resistance at the 50-day EMA - at 0.6769. A clear break of the average would strengthen a bullish theme and suggest scope for a stronger short-term recovery. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 0.6565, the Mar 10 low.
EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: 145.57 High Mar a2 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 144.96 High Mar 15
- RES 2: 143.98 76.4% retracement of the recent Mar 2 - 20 bear cycle
- RES 1: 142.64/143.63 50-day EMA / High Mar 22
- PRICE: 140.55 @ 15:47 GMT Mar 24
- SUP 1: 140.00 Round number support
- SUP 2: 138.83 Low Mar 20
- SUP 3: 137.96 3.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 137.92 Low Jan 19
EURJPY has pulled back from Wednesday’s high of 143.63. This level represents a key short-term resistance where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme. A continuation lower would expose key support at 138.83, the Mar 20 low and a bear trigger. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull mode set-up - this suggests the latest pullback is a correction. A break of 143.63 would open 143.98, 76.4% of the Mar 2 - 20 bear cycle.
