STIR: RBA-Dated OIS Firmer After January’s Employment Report

TYH6 is dealing at 111-19+, -0-04+ from closing levels in today's Asia-Pac session.

• Cash US tsys have opened in today’s Asia-Pac session, following yesterday’s holiday, largely flat to 4bps cheaper, showing a slight steepening bias amid rising US–Europe tensions over Greenland.

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP

The S&P(ESH6) overnight range was 6887.50 - 6924.50, SPX closed -0.06% on Friday, Asia is currently trading around {ESA Index}. The S&P and Nasdaq have both started the week under pressure as the market reacts to Trump’s new Greenland tariffs, what stands out is the inability for the market to close the early Asian gap seen yesterday. We are seeing US yields adding headwinds by extending higher this morning on the cash open as rate cuts begin to be priced out, {USGG10YR Index}. This morning futures remain under pressure, E-minis(S&P) -0.98%, NQZ5 -1.15%. On the day in the (ESH6) futures, price is testing the support which lies around 6900, I remain wary of the Monday morning gap lower first being filled back in, but tough to ignore the price action. The first sell-zone is back toward the 6960-6980 area, a break below 0.6900 could signal the potential for a deeper pullback back toward the 6800-6850 area.

• Lance Roberts on X: “The markets and analysts are universally bullish on equities this year. However, it is worth just keeping a little eye on statistical norms that suggest mid-term election years tend to be a bit weak.  That is not a guarantee of anything, just something to keep in the "risk watch" bucket.”  See graph below. h/t @ISABELNET_SA
• Nick Timiraos on X: “By analyzing $4trn of shipments between Jan 2024 and Nov 2025, the Kiel Institute researchers found that foreign exporters absorbed only 4% of the burden of last year’s U.S. tariff increases by lowering their prices, while American consumers and importers absorbed 96%.”   https://t.co/ORN8xsgyk8
• The S&P 500 Index Average True Range(ATR) for the last 10 Trading days:  52 Points

Fig 1: Stocks To Pause For Midterms ?

Source: MNI - Market News/ISABELNET.COM/@LanceRoberts

The overnight range was 6.9547 - 6.9591, Asia is currently trading around {CNH Curncy}. The pair continues to trade heavy under 7.0000 as the woes of the USD add tailwinds. The pair remains under pressure even with “smoothing” by local banks and the PBOC. On the day, first resistance is back toward 6.9700-6.9800 then the more important 7.00-02 area. I suspect sellers will be lining up again on any bounce back above the 7.0000 area if they do see it.

• MNI PBOC WATCH: Jan LPR To Hold On Structural Rates Cut. China’s Loan Prime Rate is likely to remain unchanged in January after the central bank opted to cut interest rates on its structural facilities for key sectors, cooling expectations for any near-term, across-the-board policy easing.  {NSN T93LQ86QRTHC <GO>}
• (Bloomberg) -- The yuan rose as much as 0.2% on Monday after official data showed China’s economic growth for last year met the government’s target. Despite achieving the 5% growth target, China’s economy posted weaker year-on-year growth one quarter after another in 2025, showing domestic demand remains weak.”
• The USD/CNH Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 122 Points
• Data/Event : 1 & 5 Year Loan Prime Rate, FDI YTD YoY CNY

Fig 1 : USD/CNH Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P