US DATA: Quit Rate Improves And Layoffs Ease But Hire Rate Very Low

The JOLTS quit rate increased in November to a joint high since June, an encouraging development but still at a relatively low level, and layoffs surprised lower, but the hire rate is at one of its lowest levels in more than ten years. 

• Quits recovered in November after a weak October, with the level rising to 3161k (cons 2995k, albeit just 4 responses) after an upward revised 2973k in Oct to nudge back above the 3128k in Sep.
• The quit rate increased to 1.98% after 1.86% in Oct (initially 1.84) and 1.96% in Sep, with 1.98% a joint high since June. Recent moves have been driven by private sectors with a quit rate at 2.20% after 2.06% in Oct (initially 2.03) and 2.15% in Sep.
• Government quit rates saw a second month at 0.7% having increased to 0.9% in Sep after sustained 0.8% readings before that. The push higher in Sep was driven by DOGE deferred resignations, with the federal govt quit rate jumping from 0.6% to 1.6% at the time after (it’s currently back at 0.6%).
• Layoffs were also encouraging as they fell to 1687k (cons 1816k, just 3 responses) after the 1850k in Oct was its highest since Jan 2023. That sees layoffs back at the lowest since May.
• Hire rates look to have slipped notably in the latest vintage but it’s only back close to where it was thought to be prior to today’s revisions (with the combined Sep/Oct release coming on the first day of the Dec FOMC meeting). Specifically, the hire rate fell to 3.21% from 3.37% in Oct (initially 3.23) and 3.36% in Sep (unrevised).
• It’s the lowest hire rate since Aug (also 3.21%), one month in the pandemic (3.09% in Apr 2020) and then back to 2012.
• Fed Chair Powell has been eager to warn that this low hire rate could see any further cooling in the labor market drive a sharper increase in the unemployment rate.