SOUTH KOREA: Q3 Household Credit Remains Firm, BoK Waiting For Policy To Impact
Q3 credit data to households broadly maintained recent trends, albeit at a slightly slower pace compared to Q2. In level terms we rose to a fresh record high of KR1968.3trln. This should add to the bias for a steady hand at next week's BoK meeting. Recent comments from Governor Rhee noted that while the official bias is easing, the policy outlook is data dependent and will determine the next move in rates (which could also shift to a tightening bias at some stage). Rhee noted last week, via BBG: “But the magnitude and timing of the cut or even the change of direction will depend on the new data that we’ll see.”
- The data showed credit to households up 0.8%q/q, versus a 1.3% gain in Q2. In y//y terms, we were up 2.8%, versus 3.0% in Q3. Credit card debt continues to rise at a faster clip, but is a much smaller aggregate share (relative to loans).
- Via Yonhap, quoting the BoK: "Overall, the slower growth in household credit was largely attributable to government regulations. The additional measures announced in October to ease conditions in the property market are expected to help stabilize the pace of mortgage lending," he added."
- These measures were announced Oct 15, and designed to cool rising household debt, with additional areas in Seoul designated as speculative zones, while lending rules were also tightened (per Yonhap).
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LOOK AHEAD: US Week Ahead Headlined By Delayed CPI Report On Friday
- The September US CPI report will be released on Friday, delayed amidst the government shutdown but with the BLS making a special exception on social security payment considerations.
- Bloomberg consensus looks for headline CPI inflation at a rounded 0.4% M/M after 0.38% back in August and for Y/Y inflation to firm two tenths to 3.1% for what would be its highest since May 2024.
- Core inflation is seen at a rounded 0.3% M/M after 0.35% in August (exceeding the median unrounded estimate of 0.31%) and 0.32% in July. It’s expected to see core CPI inflation hold at 3.1% Y/Y having in August increased to its highest since February.
- Core details should see focus on both goods and services angles: underlying goods inflation has clearly firmed in recent months on tariff pressures although the median increase has currently seen a peak back in June, whilst services will be watched for any spillover after some strong recent non-housing readings.
- The report will come within the FOMC blackout period ahead of the Oct 28-29 decision, with a 25bp cut fully priced and likely needing a large surprise to alter this.
- As for broader inflation details, Fed Chair Powell this week confusingly suggested that we will have the September PPI report but the BLS had previously said “No other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services”.
US DATA: Latest Jobless Claims Estimates During The Shutdown
As noted earlier, MNI estimates initial jobless claims at a seasonally adjusted 218k in the week to Oct 11 and continuing claims at a seasonally adjusted 1929k in the week to Oct 4.
- To give a better idea of sensitivity around these estimates, which rely on estimates for some missing states, we note the below analyst estimates:
- Goldman Sachs have a central estimate of 217k for initial claims in a range of 211-225k, whilst they see continuing claims at 1917k in a range of 1885-1930k.
- JPMorgan meanwhile also see 217k for initial claims whilst they see continuing claims as having held constant at 1927k.
NATGAS: Venture Global in Talks with Ukraine for more LNG Deliveries, Reuters
Ukraine is seeking more cargoes from Venture’s Plaquemines facility as the embattled nation approaches the winter heating season, according to Reuters sources
- Venture is in talks with Ukraine’s DTEK to procure more LNG cargoes after a year of gas infrastructure attacks by the Russians.
- Venture Global CEO Michael Sabel met with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Thursday October 16.
- DTEK signed an agreement in 2024 for an undisclosed amount of LNG from the facility, as well as 2 mtpa from Calcasieu Pass Phase 2 currently under construction.
- Plaquemines currently has spare capacity to deliver more cargoes to Ukraine on the spot market, per Reuters.
- Plaquemines now sends out the second highest LNG volume in the US, with feedgas demand averaging 3.45 bcf/d according to MNI figures.
