THAILAND: Q3 GDP Sub Expectations, Will This Help Slow The Rise In Local Rates?
Nov-17 03:38
Thailand Q3 GDP was weaker than forecast, falling -0.6%q/q, versus the market consensus of a -0.3% drop. This was the first fall in quarterly GDP since the end of 2022. Y/Y growth was 1.2% (against a 1.6% forecast and 2.8% prior). This is the weakest growth pace in y/y terms since the end of 2021. The planning agency notes that growth in y/y terms for Q4 may be around 0.6%y/y. Full growth for this year is expected at around 2%, while the 2026 projection is 1.2-2.2%.
- Such a backdrop is likely to keep the BoT with an easing bias, while the government will hope its recent stimulus efforts gain traction. The planning agency noted that Q4 GDP in q/q terms may not be a contraction. Inflation is expected to remain benign into 2026 (0% to 1%).
- The Thailand NDRIS 1y1y rate sits near +1.23%, around multi month highs. Early Sep lows were close to 0.93%. The current policy rate is at 1.50% and as noted above the bias is likely to be further easing over the coming 6 months rather than a shift to tighten policy settings.
- USD/THB is little changed, last near 32.43, up from recent lows in the 32.30/35 region, but moves above 32.50 have drawn selling interest of late.
- The detail on today's print showed private consumption down lightly in q/q terms, but still up 2.6%y/y (unchanged from Q3). Government consumption fell 3.9% y/y (from 2.2% in Q2). Investment growth slowed to 1.1% from 5.8%y/y prior. Exports were softer, up 6.9% from 11.2%y/y prior, with services exports slowing to -10.7% from -2.6% prior, as tourism slowing started to impact.
Fig 1: Thailand NDIRS 1y1y
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P/MNI
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LOOK AHEAD: US Week Ahead Headlined By Delayed CPI Report On Friday
Oct-17 20:51
- The September US CPI report will be released on Friday, delayed amidst the government shutdown but with the BLS making a special exception on social security payment considerations.
- Bloomberg consensus looks for headline CPI inflation at a rounded 0.4% M/M after 0.38% back in August and for Y/Y inflation to firm two tenths to 3.1% for what would be its highest since May 2024.
- Core inflation is seen at a rounded 0.3% M/M after 0.35% in August (exceeding the median unrounded estimate of 0.31%) and 0.32% in July. It’s expected to see core CPI inflation hold at 3.1% Y/Y having in August increased to its highest since February.
- Core details should see focus on both goods and services angles: underlying goods inflation has clearly firmed in recent months on tariff pressures although the median increase has currently seen a peak back in June, whilst services will be watched for any spillover after some strong recent non-housing readings.
- The report will come within the FOMC blackout period ahead of the Oct 28-29 decision, with a 25bp cut fully priced and likely needing a large surprise to alter this.
- As for broader inflation details, Fed Chair Powell this week confusingly suggested that we will have the September PPI report but the BLS had previously said “No other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services”.
US DATA: Latest Jobless Claims Estimates During The Shutdown
Oct-17 20:30
As noted earlier, MNI estimates initial jobless claims at a seasonally adjusted 218k in the week to Oct 11 and continuing claims at a seasonally adjusted 1929k in the week to Oct 4.
- To give a better idea of sensitivity around these estimates, which rely on estimates for some missing states, we note the below analyst estimates:
- Goldman Sachs have a central estimate of 217k for initial claims in a range of 211-225k, whilst they see continuing claims at 1917k in a range of 1885-1930k.
- JPMorgan meanwhile also see 217k for initial claims whilst they see continuing claims as having held constant at 1927k.
NATGAS: Venture Global in Talks with Ukraine for more LNG Deliveries, Reuters
Oct-17 20:28
Ukraine is seeking more cargoes from Venture’s Plaquemines facility as the embattled nation approaches the winter heating season, according to Reuters sources
- Venture is in talks with Ukraine’s DTEK to procure more LNG cargoes after a year of gas infrastructure attacks by the Russians.
- Venture Global CEO Michael Sabel met with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Thursday October 16.
- DTEK signed an agreement in 2024 for an undisclosed amount of LNG from the facility, as well as 2 mtpa from Calcasieu Pass Phase 2 currently under construction.
- Plaquemines currently has spare capacity to deliver more cargoes to Ukraine on the spot market, per Reuters.
- Plaquemines now sends out the second highest LNG volume in the US, with feedgas demand averaging 3.45 bcf/d according to MNI figures.
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