EUROZONE DATA: Q1 GDP Revised Down A Tenth; Employment Above ECB Projections
May-15 09:00
Eurozone Q1 GDP was revised down on a rounded basis to 0.3% Q/Q, from an initial estimate of 0.4% and versus 0.2% in Q4. We noted this morning that a downward revision was certainly possible given the unrounded initial estimate was 0.352%. Eurostat's press release indicates that sequential growth rates in the four largest Eurozone economies (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) were unchanged from the initial release on a rounded basis, as was Ireland at 3.2% Q/Q.
- The print is still above the ECB's March projection of 0.2% Q/Q, but we have previously noted that tariff front-loading - particularly in Ireland - likely skewed the Q1 reading higher. Underlying growth signals from soft data point to a weaker trajectory ahead, with the ECB likely to revise down its growth forecasts in the upcoming June projection round.
- Today’s national accounts release also provides a first look at Q1 employment, which grew 0.3% Q/Q (vs 0.1% prior). This was above the ECB's March projection of 0.1%. Similar to broader activity signals, expected employment indicators in survey data point to a softening of employment prospects in Q2.
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NORWAY: March Trade Surplus Falls On Lower Crude Exports
Apr-15 08:56
- The Norwegian goods trade surplus fell to NOK60.2bln in March, down from NOK84.6bln in February. On a 12m rolling basis, the surplus fell to NOK799.1bln (vs NOK804.1bln prior), still accounting for ~15% of nominal GDP.
- Gas exports rose 44.2% Y/Y to NOK57.7bln, with prices over 50% higher in March 2025 compared to the year prior.
- Brent crude exports were NOK34.2bln, the lowest since October 2021, due to reduced volumes and oil prices. The press release notes that “On the supply side, OPEC has announced increased oil production, while fears of a trade war and subdued economic growth are pulling down the demand side”.
- The “mainland” trade deficit (i.e. excluding Ships. Oil Platforms, Crude and Natural Gas) deepened to NOK31.1bln (vs NOK20.4bln prior). The 12m rolling deficit was NOK345.4bln (vs NOK338.5bln), around 6.5% of GDP.
- As noted in a recent speech by Norges Bank Governor Bache, exports to the US are fairly limited (“direct goods exports to the US, excluding oil and gas, contribute about 1.3 percent to Norwegian mainland GDP”), but the overall impact of trade tensions will need to account for indirect effects via other (more important) trading partners like the EU.
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