US-RUSSIA: Putin Aide Ushakov Talks On Peace Plan After Leak Of Witkoff Call

Nov-26 08:56

Russian state-run Tass reports comments from Assistant to the President for Foreign Policy Yuri Ushakov. Says that "representatives of the Russian and Ukrainian intelligence services are discussing sensitive issues in the UAE", but that "The US peace plan for Ukraine was not discussed in Abu Dhabi". Says Russia has not officially received the US peace plan, and has not yet discussed the details with anyone. However, Russia has "unofficially received several versions" of the peace plan and is in contact with the US on the issue. Ushakov says, "Russia views some aspects of the US peace plan positively."

  • Ushakov became the centre of the story overnight, when Bloomberg published an article claiming to have a recording of a phone call between him and US presidential envoy Steve Witkoff from mid-October in which Witkoff appears to advise Ushakov on how to broach the subject of a peace agreement with US President Donald Trump. In the call, Witkoff advised Putin to seek a call with Trump before Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's visit to Washington, D.C. In the event, Putin secured a call with Trump on 16 Oct ahead of Zelenskyy's 17 Oct visit.
  • The call is likely to further bolster views in Kyiv, Europe, and among Russia hawks in the US that Witkoff is not an experienced diplomat. They argue he is not a reliable mediator in the conflict and has become too close to senior Russian officials. Trump, however, defended Witkoff, claiming that the call was part of a 'standard negotiation'. 

Historical bullets

EURIBOR OPTIONS: More Short Cover

Oct-27 08:50
  • ERH6 98.37/98.62cs vs 0RH6 98.37/98.62cs, bought the mid for 1 in 12k total (Short Cover).

That structure traded in around 100k back in June.

AUD: AUDUSD Moves To Fresh Session Highs On Cautious Bullock Remarks

Oct-27 08:50

AUDUSD moving to fresh session highs on these comments from RBA Governor Bullock, now up 0.6% on the session at 0.6552. Today’s extension higher has strengthened a bullish theme. Resistance is seen at 0.6574, the 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Oct 14 bear leg.

  • While non-committal around easing risks at the upcoming November 4 decision (in line with our Asia-Pac team’s expectations), Bullock was more cautious in noting that Australian rates may not come down as far as other countries.
  • A reminder that overnight AUD strength was driven by increased hopes of a US/China trade deal following talks over the weekend. 

""*BULLOCK: CPI 30BPS OVER FORECAST WOULD BE QUITE MATERIAL MISS" Bloomberg

  • A reminder that Australia Q3 CPI is due on Wednesday. From our Global Week Ahead publication: Q3 CPI prints will be a key input into the RBA's 4 November decision. Volatile monthly CPI data for July and August are signalling that the trimmed mean may have stabilised around 2.7% rather than progressing towards the 2.5% target band mid-point. RBA Governor Bullock noted that the pick up in some components and especially core services was a concern given its stickiness in some other countries. 


 

 

EQUITY OPTIONS: Long dated Estoxx Put Spread

Oct-27 08:44

SX5E (19/12/31) 2800/2700ps, bought for 9 in 10k.