EM ASIA CREDIT: PTT Global Chemical: Outlook downgrade
(PTTGC, Baa3neg/BBB-neg/BBB)
"*S&P: PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEGATIVE" - BBG
Outlook change to negative, results weaker than expected, negative bias for spreads.
• S&P revised the outlook on the BBB– rating to negative.
• The agency expects leverage to stay elevated at around 6.5x–7.5x until 2027, given a still‑challenging market backdrop.
• The basic chemicals sector remains in downturn and oversupplied.
• FY25 results came in well below S&P’s estimates, with leverage peaking at about 9x.
• Earnings were hit by lower product spreads and weak volumes.
• With cash flows under pressure, management is expected to rely more on asset sales to reduce debt.
• Overall, this points to a negative bias for spreads.
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Historical bullets
SCHATZ TECHS: (H6) Corrective Phase Still In Play
- RES 4: 107.000 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 106.945 High Dec 3 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 106.925 High Dec 4
- RES 1: 106.896 61.8% retracement of the Nov 21 - Dec 10 bear leg
- PRICE: 106.850 @ 06:10 GMT Jan 20
- SUP 1: 106.790 Low Jan 9 / 16 and a key near-term support
- SUP 2: 106.725 Low Jan 5
- SUP 3: 106.690 Low Dec 18 & 22
- SUP 4: 106.630 Low Dec 10 and the bear trigger
A bear theme in Schatz futures remains intact and the bull cycle since Dec 10 still appears corrective. However, recent gains continue to highlight a stronger short-term upward cycle. A continuation higher has exposed 106.896, a Fibonacci retracement. For bears, a reversal would refocus attention on key support and the bear trigger at 106.630, the Dec 10 low. First key support to watch lies at 106.790, the Jan 9 and 16 low.
GBPUSD TECHS: Potential Reversal Signal
- RES 4: 1.3726 High Sep 17 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.3661 High Sep 18
- RES 2: 1.3607 2.764 proj of the Nov 4 - 13 - 20 price swing
- RES 1: 1.3495/3568 High Jan 13 / 6 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.3440 @ 06:23 GMT Jan 20
- SUP 1: 1.3331 Low Jan 19 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3312 Low Dec 17
- SUP 3: 1.3289 50.0% retracement of the Nov 4 - Jan 6 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.3223 61.8% retracement of the Nov 4 - Jan 6 bull leg
A recovery in GBPUSD from Monday's low highlights a potential early reversal signal. Initial key resistance has been defined at 1.3495, the Jan 13 high. A stronger recovery and a move above this short-term hurdle would strengthen the reversal threat. On the downside, support to watch lies at the Jan 19 low of 1.3331. Clearance of it would confirm a resumption of the recent bear cycle and open 1.3312, the Dec 17 low.
US TSY OPTIONS: TYH6 111.50 Puts Lifted
TYH6 111.50 puts paper paid 0-32 on ~5K.
