US DATA: Private Payrolls Drive NFP Beat (With Caveats) After Major Revisions
Feb-11 14:06
- Nonfarm payrolls growth was far stronger than expected in January at 130k (cons 65k) after negligible two-month revisions of -17k (mainly in Nov).
- Private payrolls saw a larger beat, both with the 172k (68k cons) in January but with also a two-month revision of +49k (fairly evenly split over Dec and Nov). However, taking some of the gloss off, the Jan increase was led by a huge 124k rise from health & social assistance, a cyclically insensitive category that has been a lifeline for aggregatve private sector job creation.
- Latest three-month averages after significant revisions, which we touch on below: NFP at 73k, private at 103k and private ex health & social assistance at 25k.
- The annual benchmark revision was -862k nsa (or -898k sa) i.e. the amount cumulative payrolls growth was lowered over the twelve months to Mar 2025.
- We had expected somewhere in the region of -700k to -800k and had seen a median estimate of -825k, but -862k is still within the analyst range seen. It leaves a relatively small improvement vs the -911k in the preliminary estimate.
- See the table below for latest monthly profiles, factoring in this benchmark adjustment up to Mar 2025 plus subsequent revisions from the new birth/death model and revised seasonal adjustment factors over the past five years.
- The heaviest downward revisions were concentrated back in Nov 2024-Jan 2025 along with May 2024.
- Looking at what revisions mean for latest data, NFP growth was 5k/month higher in 4Q25 than previously thought but 28k/month lower in 3Q25. Private payrolls fared relatively better, revised up an average 20k/month in Q4 after -19k/month in Q3 with these revisions driven by non-healthcare.
- However, largely owing to the benchmark revision, what was seen as just 20k of jobs creation over 2025 for private ex health & social assistance is now estimated to have been a heavy -326k decline.
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SLOVAKIA AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer next week (Monday 19 January)
Jan-12 14:02
ARDAL has announced that the following SlovGBs will be on offer at next week's auction (Monday 19 January):
- the 3.00% Feb-28 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000024683)
- the 3.00% Nov-31 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000026241)
- the 3.625% Nov-37 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000028304)
- the 4.00% Feb-43 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000022547)
SOFR OPTIONS: Differing Opinions on Upside Trajectory
Jan-12 13:58
- +15,000 SFRJ6 96.62/96.75/96.87 call trees, 0.0
- +1,000 SFRM7/SFRU7 call strip, 0.75 (note Red-pack calls)
FRANCE T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: 13/28/50-week BTFs
Jan-12 13:56
| Type | 13-week BTF | 28-week BTF | 50-week BTF |
| Maturity | Apr 15, 2026 | Jul 29, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 |
| Amount | E3.798bln | E2.1bln | E2bln |
| Target | E3.4-3.8bln | E1.7-2.1bln | E1.6-2.0bln |
| Previous | E3.499bln | E1.9bln | E2bln |
| Avg yield | 2.026% | 2.068% | 2.098% |
| Previous | 2.043% | 2.060% | 2.116% |
| Bid-to-cover | 3.53x | 4.62x | 4.66x |
| Previous | 2.67x | 3.75x | 3.2x |
| Previous date | Jan 05, 2026 | Jan 05, 2026 | Jan 05, 2026 |
