Private capital expenditure volumes unexpectedly fell 0.2% q/q in Q4 after an upwardly-revised +1.6% q/q in Q3. It looks like private investment will be soft in the Q4 national accounts published on March 5, especially plant and equipment. The RBA noted at its February meeting that “there has been continued subdued growth in private demand”. Q4 GDP may see stronger growth in private consumption.
- Investment volumes in building & structures rose 0.2% q/q after 1.9%, while plant & equipment fell 0.8% q/q following a 1.3% increase. This left the components down 1.0% y/y (Q3 -0.2%) and up 2.4% y/y (Q3 +3.8%) respectively. Total private capex rose 0.6% y/y following 1.6%.
- The weakness in plant& equipment was driven by non-mining (-1.0% q/q), and specifically the construction sector (-8.1%), with mining up 0.6% q/q.
- Buildings & structures were supported by a 1.1% q/q rise in non-mining, driven by electricity infrastructure, but mining fell 1.1% q/q.
- Investment intentions for FY25 were revised up 3.2% on the last estimate, while the first estimate for FY26 is 1.8% higher than FY25’s first estimate.
Australia private capex volumes y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/ABS