AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (Z5) Southbound
- RES 3: 97.796 - 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 12 - 15 price swing
- RES 2: 96.685 - 1.000 proj of the Sep 3 - 12 - 15 price swing
- RES 1: 96.615 - High Sep 12
- PRICE: 96.390 @ 18:27 BST Sep 26
- SUP 1: 96.280 - Low May 15 (cont.)
- SUP 2: 95.900 - Low Jan 14 (cont.)
- SUP 3: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24
Aussie 3-yr futures have traded lower and the contract has cleared the Sep 3 low of 96.435. A break of this level negates the recent short-term bullish theme. This breach signals scope for an extension towards 96.280, the May 15 low on the continuation chart. The short-term resistance to watch is 96.615, the Sep 12 high. Clearance of this level is required to reinstate a bullish theme.
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EURGBP TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 0.8744 High Aug 7
- RES 2: 0.8682 High Aug 8
- RES 1: 0.8674 High Aug 25
- PRICE: 0.8614 @ 15:55 BST Aug 27
- SUP 1: 0.8597 Low Aug 14
- SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg
- SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30
- SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg
Short-term gains in EURGBP are considered corrective - for now - confirmed by the pullback into the Wednesday close. A stronger recovery would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. On the downside, note that recent weakness resulted in a breach of key support at 0.8611, the Jul 31 low. The cross has also pierced the 50-day EMA, at 0.8622. A clear breach of these supports would highlight a stronger bear reversal. This would open 0.8562, a Fibonacci retracement point.
GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Signal Remains In Play
- RES 4: 1.3753 High High Jul 2
- RES 3: 1.3681 High Jul 4
- RES 2: 1.3636 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - Aug1 downleg
- RES 1: 1.3544/3595 High Aug 22 / 14
- PRICE: 1.3460 @ 15:54 BST Aug 27
- SUP 1: 1.3391 Low Aug 22
- SUP 2: 1.3315 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.3249 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.3142 Low Aug 1 and a key support
A rally on Aug 22 in GBPUSD continues to signal the end of the recent corrective phase - last Friday’s reversal pattern is a bullish engulfing candle. An extension higher would open the short-term bull trigger at 1.3595, the Aug 14 high. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a climb towards 1.3636, the 76.4% retracement of the bear leg between Jul 1 and Aug 1. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.3391, the Aug 22 low.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Q2 GDP Revisions Expected To Show Firmer Consumption
- The week’s data picks up significantly from tomorrow with the second estimate for Q2 national accounts and weekly jobless claims at 0830ET.
- The national accounts release offers first revisions to real GDP growth of 3.0% annualized in Q2 having surprised stronger in the flash release (then consensus 2.6%, GDPNow 2.9%) after -0.5% in Q1.
- Bloomberg consensus looks for a small upward revision to real GDP growth with 3.1% as private consumption being revised up two tenths to 1.6%.
- Smoothing the tariff-distorted quarters out, the average of 1.2% annualized for real GDP growth in 1H25 was a clear slowdown from the 2.5% through 2024.
- Domestic demand will continue to be watched for signs of underlying economic strength after PDFP slowed to 1.2% in Q2 for its slowest quarter since 4Q22. Similarly, the 1.6% in 1H25 followed 3.0% through 2024. Residential investment was a sizeable drag here with a -0.2pp contribution to GDP growth as the housing market remained under pressure.
- Core PCE inflation revisions for Q2 can also give hints as to what to expect in Friday’s monthly release for July (specifically for revisions to Q2 months of course, whilst we have seen unrounded core PCE estimates average 0.28% M/M for July). The median analyst looks for a very small upward revision to a rounded 2.6% from a starting point of 2.54% annualized, although currently only has 10 responses.
