OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - WTI Bull Cycle Remains In Play
Jul-26 10:35
- On the commodity front, Gold conditions remain bullish for now and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Last week’s print above $1985.3, the May 24 high, reinforces a bull theme. A resumption of gains would pave the way for a climb towards $1998.1, 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Jun 29 bear leg. The yellow metal remains above support at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $1950.4. This average represents an important short-term level.
- In the oil space, the uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and this week’s climb has confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle. The break above $77.15, the Jul 13 high signals scope for a move towards the next key resistance at $81.44, the high on Apr 12 / 13. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current conditions. Key short-term support has been defined at $73.78, the Jul 17 low.
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USD: A fresh low for the USDNOK
Jun-26 10:33
- NOK is the best performer in G10 against the Dollar, and making new intraday high, with most market participants looking at 0.8902, the June for initial support.
- A break through the figure, would see 0.8820, the May and 2023 low, and also the lowest print since January 2021.
LOOK AHEAD: Monday-Tuesday Data Calendar
Jun-26 10:28
- Slow start to the new week:
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- Jun-26 1030 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity (-29.1, -20.0)
- Jun-26 1130 US Tsy $65B 13W, $58B 26W bill auctions
- Jun-26 1300 US Tsy $42B 2Y Note auction (91282CHL8)
- Jun-27 0830 Durable Goods Orders (1.1%, -0.9%); Ex-Trans (-0.3%, 0.0%)
- Jun-27 0830 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (1.3%, 0.2%); Ship (0.5%, 0.2%)
- Jun-27 0900 FHFA House Price Index MoM (0.6%, 0.5%)
- Jun-27 0900 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA (0.45%, 0.35%)
- Jun-27 1000 New Home Sales (683k, 675k); MoM (4.1%, -1.2%)
- Jun-27 1000 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (102.3, 104.0)
- Jun-27 1000 Richmond Fed Mfg Index (-15, -12)
- Jun-27 1000 Richmond Fed Business Conditions (-17, --)
- Jun-27 1130 US Tsy $50B 42D Bill CMB auction
- Jun-27 1030 Dallas Fed Services Activity (-17.3, --)
- Jun-27 1300 US Tsy $43B 5Y Note auction (91282CHK0)
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U3) Trend Signals Remain Bearish
Jun-26 10:24
- RES 4: 115-00 High Jun 1 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 114-06+/10+ High Jun 6 / 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 114-00 High Jun 13
- RES 1: 113.18 High Jun 15
- PRICE: 11313+ @ 11:12 BST Jun 26
- SUP 1: 112-12+ Low Jun 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 112-00 Low Mar 10
- SUP 3: 111-14+ Low Mar 9
- SUP 4: 110-27+ Low Mar 2 and key support
Treasury futures continue to trade inside the recent range. The trend outlook is unchanged and the outlook remains bearish. Recently, support at 112-29+, the May 26 / 30 low was cleared. This signals scope for 112-00, the Mar 10 low. Further out, potential is seen for a move towards 110-27+, the Mar 2 low and a key support. Short-term gains are considered corrective. Initial firm resistance is at 114-00, the Jun 13 high.
