LATAM FX: Price Signal Summary - USDCLP Trend Outlook Remains Bullish
Mar-21 14:23
- The USDMXN trend condition remains bearish following its recent sell-off and the latest recovery is considered corrective. The break of key support at 16.7852, the Jan 8 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and this has opened 16.6262, the Jul 28 2023 low. A break of this level would open 16.4218, the 1.236 projection of the Dec 5 - Jan 8 - Jan 17 price swing. On the upside, a clear reversal higher would refocus attention on 17.3860, the Jan 17 high and a bull trigger. Initial firm resistance to watch is 16.9891, the 50-day EMA.
- Despite the sharp pullback, USDBRL bullish conditions remain intact. Attention has been on key resistance at 5.0017, the Jan 23 high. This week’s initial gains resulted in a break of this hurdle. A resumption of gains would reinforce the importance of the break and signal scope for a test of 5.0609, 61.8% of the Oct 6 - Dec 27 bear leg. Clearance of this retracement would open 5.0983, the Oct 20 ‘23 high. The 50-day EMA - at 4.9581 - has been pierced. A clear break of this level would threaten bullish conditions and expose 4.9187, the Feb 22 low.
- USDCLP medium-term trend conditions remain bullish and the strong recovery from last week’s low is a positive development. Moving average studies continue to highlight a bullish set-up and note that the latest recovery means support around the 50-day EMA - at 949.08 - has remained intact. Attention is on the resistance and bull trigger at 990.67, the Feb 26 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1000.00. On the downside, key support has been defined at 935.63, the Mar 15 low.
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STIR: BLOCK, Red Mar'25 SOFR Call FLy
Feb-20 14:15
- +5,000 SFRH5 95.00/95.62/96.25 call flys, 13.0 ref 95.93 at 0907:19ET
US: TURKEY: Senate Foreign Relations Members Meet Govt Officials In Ankara
Feb-20 14:12
A meeting between a US delegation including Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair Chris Murphy (D-CT), Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), and US Ambassador to Turkey Jeff Flake and a Turkish delegation led by Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan is underway in Ankara, Turkey.
- The meeting comes as Turkey recalibrates its relations with both NATO and Russia. Following the ratification of Sweden's NATO membership in January, Ankara has made steps towards reintegration into NATO's central defence procurement programmes - including the F-35 programme - which it was excluded from after buying a Russia S400 missile system in 2019, a deal which also incurred US sanctions.
- Today's meeting suggests that the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, which has long opposed defence deals with Ankara, may approve Turkey's access to US defence tech shortly, and unlock a pending sale of F-16s.
- However, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is also slated to hold a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Turkey at the end of March. Should that meeting go ahead it would be Putin's first visit to a NATO member state since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, suggesting that Erdogan will continue to balance cordial relations between both NATO and Russia.
- Bloomberg notes that Erdogan has also, "vowed to make Turkey the first NATO member to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a China-led international security group that originally focused on Central Asia but is now expanding toward the Middle East."
STIR: BLOCK, Mar'24 SOFR Calls
Feb-20 14:09
- 8,000 SFRH4 95.25 calls, .75 ref 94.715 at 0901:41ET
