OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Support In Gold Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $120.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $117.13 - 1.382 proj of the Mar 10 - Apr 7 - 17 price swing  
• RES 2: $113.10 - 1.236 proj of the Mar 10 - Apr 7 - 17 price swing
• RES 1: $110.93 - High Apr 30
• PRICE: $92.29 @ 11:39 BST May 6
• SUP 1: $89.07 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $78.97 - Low Apr 17
• SUP 3: $73.56 - Low Mar 10 
• SUP 4: $68.38 - Low Mar 2  

The primary bull cycle in WTI remains intact. However, today’s strong sell-off highlights an extension of the corrective cycle that started on Apr 30. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA, exposing the next key support at $89.07, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the 50-day average is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $110-93, the Apr 30 high.

Treasuries opened firmer with the late cash open for the Japan holiday and have largely continued to extend gains ever since, including in latest trade, with reports that the US and Iran are closing in on a one-page deal. Away from headlines, especially related to Iran’s response to Washington’s 14-point peace proposal, today will also see attention on the Quarterly Refunding Announcement plus monthly ADP before Friday’s NFP report. 

• Cash yields are 6.5-9.7bp lower on the day, with declines led by the belly.
• 5Y yields trade at 3.9883% (-9.1bp) vs Monday’s 4.118%
• TYM6 has recently ticked up to a fresh session high of 110-29+ (+18+) on strong cumulative overnight volumes of 575k, testing resistance at 110-28+ (20-day EMA) after which lies 111-09 (50-day EMA).
• It sees a sharper lift after yesterday’s move away from Monday’s lows of 110-00+ having bottomed out above the bear trigger at 109-24 (Mar 27 low), but with gains deemed corrective.
• Data: Weekly MBA (0700ET), ADP employment (0815ET)
• Fedspeak: Musalem (0930ET), Goolsbee (1300ET)
• Treasury: QRA (0830ET) - MNI Preview: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_US_Deep_Dive_Issuance_2026_04_b3024c8748.pdf
• Monday’s borrowing estimates were higher than expected ($189bn in Q2 vs our anticipated $130bn, $671bn in Q3 vs $625bn, only partly reflected by a higher end-quarter TGA estimate of $950bn in Q3 vs our $900bn. The split by tenor in the above link will obviously depends on how much of the overshoot people expect to be funded by bills.
• Bill issuance: US Tsy $69B 17W bill auction (1130ET)
• Politics: Trump in Miliary Mother’s Day Event (1230ET), Trump in Reception for the Trust for the National Mall (1730ET)

• New min size CHF330mln (from CHF250mln)
• Guidance MS +47-52bp (WPIR) (was +52-57bp) 
• Maturity: 28 May 2029 
• Books are subject
•  

• New min size CHF180mln (from CHF125mln)
• Spread set at MS +68bp (guidance was +65-70bp)
• Maturity: 28 May 2032

• New min size CHF150mln (from CHF125mln)
• Spread set at MS +83bp (guidance was +80-85bp)
• Maturity: 28 May 2036

• Lead Manager(s): Deutsche Bank, UBS
• Timing: Books to close at 11:50BST / 12:50CET, pricing to follow