OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - S&P E- Minis Clear Resistance And Resume The Uptrend
Jul-13 09:43
- In the equity space, a bull theme in S&P E-Minis remains intact. Yesterday’s gains resulted in a break of resistance at 4498.00, the Jun 30 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The contract has also traded through 4500.00 and this opens 4532.08, 2.236 projection of the May 4 - 19 - 24 price swing. First support lies at 4428.89, the 20-day EMA.
- The EUROSTOXX 50 futures contract continues to appreciate. The break higher this week has resulted in a move above the 50-day EMA at 4331.70 and price is through 4371.00, the Jul 6 high. Clearance of this latter level highlights a stronger bull cycle and attention turns to key resistance and the bull trigger at 4447.00, the Jul 3 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 4220.00, the Jul 7 low.
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CROSS ASSET: Rev. Repo Rate Cut & Easing Exp. See Chinese Rates Back To Pre-ZCS Removal Levels
Jun-13 09:37
USD/CNH briefly looked through the uptrend channel that we have flagged on numerous occasions in recent days, registering a fresh YtD high in the process, before pulling back to last print a touch higher on the day at CNH7.1630.
- Mainland equities managed to rally at an index level (CSI 300 +0.5% at the close), on the back of the already deployed/expectations surrounding further policy easing, although the recent marginal net selling bias via the HK Stock Connect mechanism remained intact for a third straight day.
- Benchmark 10-Year Year CGB yields eased by 6bp, while 5-Year NDIRS rates showed below 2.40%, as pre-ZCS removal levels came into play (we had previously pointed to the need for a more notable easing bias from the PBoC to facilitate such a move).
GERMAN AUCTION RESULTS: 2.40% Oct-28 Bobl
Jun-13 09:34
| 2.40% Oct-28 Bobl* | Previous | |
| ISIN | DE000BU25018 | DE000BU25000 |
| Allotted | E3.993bln | E4.128bln |
| Avg yield | 2.41% | 2.27% |
| Bid-to-offer | 1.33x | 1.72x |
| Bid-to-cover | 1.66x | 2.09x |
| Average Price | 99.92 | 99.65 |
| Low acc. Price | 99.91 | 99.65 |
| Pre-auction mid | 99.617 | |
| Previous date | 09-May-23 | |
| Total sold | E5bln | E5bln |
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - EURUSD Approaches Resistance At The 50-Day EMA
Jun-13 09:32
- In FX, EURUSD is firmer today. The pair has breached 1.0779, the Jun 2 high, reinforcing a short-term bullish theme. Attention turns to resistance at 1.0812, the 50-day EMA where a clear break would signal scope for an extension higher. Note that the trend condition remains bearish and the latest bounce appears to be a correction. A failure at the 50-day EMA and a reversal lower would refocus sights on the bear trigger at 1.0635, the May 31 low.
- Yesterday’s move lower in GBPUSD appears to be a correction and a bull cycle remains in play. Resistance at 1.2545, Jun 2 high, was cleared last week, and yesterday’s early gains resulted in a print above 1.2592, 76.4% of the May 10 - 25 downleg. A clear break of this level would expose key resistance at 1.2680, May 10 high. First support is 1.2468, the 20-day EMA.
- The trend condition in USDJPY remains bullish and attention is on key resistance at the top of a bull channel drawn from the Jan 16 low. The line intersects at 141.30 today. A clear break of this hurdle would reinforce a bullish theme and open 141.61, the Nov 23 2022 high. For bears, a strong reversal lower would instead highlight a potential top and signal scope for a deeper pullback inside the channel. Support is at 138.80, the 20-day EMA.
