OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Resistance Remains Intact For Now
Nov-20 11:00
- In the equity space, S&P E-Minis maintain a softer S/T tone - for now - despite the recovery from Tuesday’s low. The recent breach of 6655.70, the Nov 7 low cancels recent bullish signals and signals scope for an extension of the current corrective cycle. Note that price has also traded through support at the 50-day EMA. A resumption of weakness would open 6540.25, the Oct 10 low and the next key support. Initial firm resistance to watch is 6767.81, the 20-day EMA.
- A medium-term bull trend in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact, however, recent weakness highlights a stronger corrective cycle. The contract has breached two key support points; 5601.75, the 50-day EMA, and 5615.50, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Aug 1 low. The breach signals scope for a deeper pullback and opens 5503.00, a 50.0% retracement of the Aug 1 - Nov 13 bull cycle. Initial firm resistance to watch is 5652.52, the 20-day EMA.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Threat In Oil Futures Remains Present
Oct-21 10:53
- On the commodity front, a bull cycle in Gold remains intact and price is holding on to its recent gains. The latest climb maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the $4400.00 handle next, and $4404.9, a 3.500 projection of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing. Note that the trend is in overbought territory. A move down - a correction - would allow the overbought set-up to unwind. Support to watch lies at $4021.6, the 20-day EMA.
- A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the move down last week reinforces current conditions. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on $54.89 next, the May 5 low, where a break would open $54.10, the Apr 9 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance is seen at $61.76, the 50-day EMA.
US TSYS: Small Gains Reversed Ahead Of A Headline Watching Session
Oct-21 10:50
- Treasuries have over the past hour reversed earlier gains to leave them modestly lower on the day across the curve.
- Recent losses have come with crude oil futures pushing higher (+0.9%) although precious metals have extended the day's losses (gold -2.2%, reversing yesterday's increase, and a particularly notable -4.3% for silver).
- Cash yields are 0.3-1bp higher across the curve, led by the front end.
- TYZ5 trades at 113-18+ (-00+) having pulled back from earlier highs of 113-24, on subdued cumulative volumes of 235k.
- The trend signal remains bullish, with resistance at 114-02 (Oct 17 high) before 114-10 (Apr 7 continuation) whilst support is seen at 113-01+ (20-day EMA).
- Today’s data is limited to the Philly Fed non-manufacturing survey and weekly Redbook retail sales, with potential spillover from Canadian CPI at 0830ET ahead of Friday’s US release.
- Political headlines are likely more in focus, both on trade and government shutdown prospects, with various potential appearances from President Trump. Trump yesterday signed a landmark pact with Australia’s Albanese to boost America’s access to rare earths and other critical minerals.
- Data: Philly Fed non-mfg Oct (0830ET), Weekly Redbook retail sales (0855ET)
- Bill issuance: US Tsy $95B 6W bill auction (1130ET)
- Politics: Trump in peace award ceremony (1100ET), Trump hosts Rose Garden Club Lunch (1200ET, WH press pool), Trump participates in Diwali celebration (1600ET, WH press pool), Trump hosts Rose Garden Club Dinner (1900ET)
BOE: Bailey and Breeden headlines starting to hit
Oct-21 10:50
- First headlines are coming from Bailey and Breeden testifying ahead of the Lords Select Financial Services Regulation Committee.
- This is not necessarily the forum for either to discuss anything on monetary policy – and Bailey's unlikely to say any more on the topic than he did last week.
