OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Resistance In WTI Remains Intact

OI data points to net short setting dominating in the SOFR whites on Friday, while net long setting was most prominent in the reds.

• Net positioning swings in the greens and blues were more modest.

• In FX, EURUSD is trading lower today, as the current bear leg extends. The pair last Friday breached an important support at 1.1542, the Oct 9 low. This confirms a resumption of the current downtrend. Note that 1.1516, the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - Sep 17 bull leg, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would expose key support at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low. Resistance to watch is 1.1669, the Oct 17 high.
• A bear cycle in GBPUSD remains intact and last week’s impulsive sell-off strengthens current conditions. The pair has breached key support at 1.3142, the Aug 1 low. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Sep 17. Sights are on 1.3041 next, the Apr 14 low. Initial firm resistance is 1.3322, the 20-day EMA. Note that the trend is in oversold territory, a recovery would allow this condition to unwind.
• Bullish conditions in USDJPY remain intact and the pair is holding on to last week’s gains. The break higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 154.80, the Feb 12 high. First important support to watch lies at 151.83, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.

OI data points to a mix of net long cover (TY, UXY & WN) and short setting (US) further out the curve as long end futures settled lower on Friday.

• TU & FV futures were unchanged at settlement, so it is difficult to make any meaningful assertions when it comes to positioning swings in those contracts (outside of exposure being added in TU and trimmed in FV).
• Net curve-wide DV01 equivalent exposure was little changed on the day.