OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Bears Remain In The Driver's Seat
Dec-28 10:52
- In FX, EURUSD maintains a positive tone and the pair continues to appreciate - this week’s gains reinforce bullish conditions. Price has recently traded through key resistance at 1.1017, the Nov 29 high and a bull trigger, as well as 1.1081, 76.4% of the Jul - Oct bear leg. This opens 1.1229, the Jul 20 high. Initial firm support is seen at 1.0938, the 20-day EMA.
- The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish. The pair has breached resistance at 1.2794, the Dec 14 high and traded through 1.2800. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 1.2881, 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg. Initial firm support has been defined at 1.2612, the Dec 21 low.
- USDJPY is trading lower today and the pair remains below 144.96, the Dec 9 high. The recent recovery from 140.97, the Dec 14 low, has been a correction and the trend condition remains bearish. Support at 140.97, the Dec 14 low, has been cleared, confirming a resumption of the downtrend that started Nov 13. This opens 140.23, 2.00 projection of the Nov 13 - 21 - 22 price swing. Initial firm resistance is at 144.15, the 20-day EMA.
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GBP: BofA: The Message Is Getting Through
Nov-28 10:48
BofA note that GBP TWI is trading “towards the top end of the "reset range" as the pound returns to basics, with UK rates a significant driver once more.”
- “The back-up in 1Y1Y SONIA has been driven by the improvement in UK data surprises. Whilst encouraging, we note that expectations around UK data have been weak.”
- BofA also believe that “the BoE has been at pains to stress to markets that UK rate pricing for cuts in 2024 is misplaced.”
- “The macro outlook will likely remain poor in 2024. High inflation and anaemic growth do not provide the basis for a strong currency.”
OAT: Basis trade
Nov-28 10:44
OAT Basis suggest seller.
Pullback at the lows is again led by BTP and to a lesser extend OAT just now.
Yesterday saw similar reaction, with BTP and OAT leading to the upside in futures.- OATZ3 1.68k at 126.27.
CHINA RATES: HKEX Eyes Q124 As Launch Period For China 10-Year Bond Futures
Nov-28 10:41
A circular released by the HKEX notes that "Hong Kong Futures Exchange Limited is pleased to announce the plan to introduce the 10-year China Ministry of Finance Treasury Bond Futures Contract."
- "Trading is targeted to commence in Q1 of 2024, subject to regulatory approval and market readiness. The actual launch date will be announced via a separate market circular in due course."
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