OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Oil Futures Remain Vulnerable
Jun-29 10:15
- On the commodity front, trend conditions in Gold remain bearish and the yellow metal is trading at this week’s lows. Fresh trend lows reinforce current bearish conditions, confirming a resumption of the downtrend and extending the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on $1885.8, the Mar 15 low. Key resistance is $1985.3, the May 24 high. Initial resistance is $1939.8, the 20-day EMA.
- In the oil space, WTI futures remain in a bear mode condition and the sharp sell-off late last week reinforces this theme. Support at $67.21, the May 31 low, was again pierced yesterday, a clear break would open $64.41, the May 4 low. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position highlighting a downtrend. The contract is trading below resistance at $75.70, the Jun 5 high. A break of this level would signal a reversal. Initial resistance is at $72.72, the Jun 21 high.
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LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: Housing Data, Cons Confidence, Tsy Bill Sales
May-30 10:11
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- May-30 0900 House Price Purchase Index QoQ (0.3%, --)
- May-30 0900 FHFA House Price Index MoM (0.5%, 0.2%)
- May-30 0900 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA (0.06%, 0.0%)
- May-30 0900 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA (0.36%, -1.7%)
- May-30 0900 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA (2.05%, --)
- May-30 1000 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (101.3, 99.0)
- May-30 1000 Conf. Board Present Situation (151.1, --)
- May-30 1000 Conf. Board Expectations (68.1, --)
- May-30 1030 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity (-23.4, -18.0)
- May-30 1130 US Tsy $63B 13W, $56B 26W bill auctions
- May-30 1300 US Tsy $50B 161D CMB auction
- May-30 1300 Richmond Fed Barkin, NABE policy outlook webinar
US: SFR FIX - 30/05/23
May-30 10:03
- TSFR1M 5.16026 0.00682
- TSFR3M 5.27665 0.01291
- TSFR6M 5.31909 0.02073
- TSFR12M 5.16202 0.06031
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Is Testing Bull Channel Resistance
May-30 10:03
- In FX, EURUSD trend needle continues to point south and short-term gains are considered corrective. Fresh cycle lows reinforce bearish conditions. The 1.0713 objective has been breached, the Mar 24 low. This paves the way for a move towards 1.0653 next, 76.4% of the Mar 15 - Apr 26 bull run. A firm resistance is seen at 1.0833, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this average is required to ease current bearish pressure.
- GBPUSD is trading higher today, extending the bounce from last week’s 1.2308 low on May 25. Short-term gains are considered corrective and the trend direction remains down. Price has recently breached the 50-day EMA and 1.2345, the Apr 10 low. This opens 1.2242 next, 50.0% of the Mar 8 - May 10 bull run. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2436, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal a possible reversal.
- USDJPY bullish conditions remain intact and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. Price has arrived at the top of the bull channel drawn from the Jan 16 low which intersects at 140.81. This represents a key resistance and a clear break of it would reinforce bullish conditions and open 141.61, the Nov 23 2022 high. Initial key support to watch is 137.58, the 20-day EMA.
