OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bounce In Gilts Considered Corrective
Mar-09 11:29
- In the FI space, Bund futures traded higher Thursday and the contract remains in a short-term corrective cycle. The trend outlook is bearish. Recent fresh lows confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on the 130.00 handle next. Initial firm resistance is seen at 132.79, the 20-day EMA. The bear trigger is 130.35, the Mar 2 low.
- Gilt futures remain above 99.20, the Feb 28 low and the contract traded higher Wednesday. Despite the recent bounce, trend conditions are bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. Recent trend lows maintain the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A resumption of weakness would open 99.17, the 1.382 projection of the Feb 20 - 23 - 24 price swing. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 101.05, the Mar 8 high.
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EUR: EURNOK highest since October 2020
Feb-07 11:28
- EURNOK has cleared 11.1000, and further upside momentum, will target the October 2020 high at 11.2113.
Chart source: MNI/Bloomberg
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Oil Futures Appear Vulnerable Despite A Short-Term Bounce
Feb-07 11:25
- On the commodity front, the trend condition in Gold is bearish for now and the yellow metal has entered a corrective cycle. This follows the strong sell-off on Thursday and Friday last week and sights are on the 50-day EMA, at $1853.7. This average represents a key support and if breached, would strengthen a bearish case and suggest scope for a deeper pullback. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger, has been defined at $1959.7, the Feb 2 high.
- In the Oil space, a sharp sell-off on Friday in WTI futures reinforced bearish conditions. The move lower Monday resulted in a print below $72.74, Jan 5 low and a key support. A clear break of it would strengthen the bearish theme and expose $70.56, Dec 9 low and a bear trigger. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting current market sentiment. Gains are considered corrective. Initial firm resistance is at $78.56, the 50-day EMA.
LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: FED Chair Powell on Tap, 3Y Note Sale
Feb-07 11:22
Link to Chairman Powell event to 1230ET: Economic Club of DC.
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- Feb-7 0830 Trade Balance (-$61.5B, -$68.5B)
- Feb-7 1230 Fed Chair Powell, Economic Club of Washington interview, no text
- Feb-7 1300 US Tsy $40B 3Y Note auction (91282CGL9)
- Feb-7 1400 Fed VC Barr on financial inclusion, text and moderated Q&A
- Feb-7 1500 Consumer Credit ($27.962B, $25.0B)
