OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Threat In Oil Futures Still Present
Dec-19 11:51
- On the commodity front, the trend structure in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish. The bear phase between Oct 20 - 28 appears to have been a correction and note that the recovery since Oct 28 signals the end of that corrective cycle. Key support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $4106.7. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Price is approaching key resistance and the bull trigger at $4381.5, the Oct 20 high. A break resumes the primary uptrend.
- The trend condition in WTI futures remains bearish. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A key support and the bear trigger at $56.11, the Oct 17 low, has been breached. Clearance of this level resumes the downtrend and opens $53.77, a 1.764 projection of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing. Key short-term resistance to watch is $61.25, the Oct 24 high. First resistance is at $58.83, the 50- day EMA.
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FOREX: USDJPY Accelerates Above 156.00 Following Katayama/Ueda Meeting
Nov-19 11:43
- USDJPY quickly accelerated through yesterday's highs to hit a new cycle high on Wednesday, extending as high as 156.30 following a meeting between Finance Minister Katayama and BOJ Governor Ueda. Katayama stated the two "did not specifically talk about FX", possibly suggesting JPY weakness is not the highest priority and greenlighting the market to put further pressure on the struggling yen.
- Price action takes the pair above 155.89, the Feb 3 high, while more meaningful resistance is seen at 156.75, the Jan 23 high. For EURJPY, targets rely on technical projections, with 181.01 and 181.70 the next levels of note based on the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing.
- The likes of AUD (-0.32%) and NZD (-0.55%) are underperforming on the session, amid the ongoing concerns for risk and major equity indices consolidating near recent lows. Recent weakness in AUDUSD reinforces a short-term bearish signal on Nov 13 - a shooting star (inverted hammer) candle formation. NZDUSD has been grinding towards cycle lows, which are located at 0.5606.
- UK CPI printed roughly in line with expectations, which may lower the bar for a December cut a touch, however, overall the print should not have much of an impact for policy over the medium term. While the BoE will get the next round of CPI data under embargo on the Monday before the next meeting, the main risk event for BoE policy ahead continues to be next week's budget.
- Moving average studies in GBPUSD remain in a bear-mode condition and continue to highlight a dominant downtrend. The bear trigger remains at 1.3010, the Nov 4 and 5 low, while key short-term resistance stands at the 1.3198 20-day EMA.
- Nvidia earnings incl. guidance have the potential for an impact on FX, especially given recent caution around AI valuations. Fed's Logan, Miran, Barkin, and Williams are on the calendar, alongside the October FOMC minutes. US September Payrolls will headline Thursday.
USDJPY TECHS: Northbound
Nov-19 11:42
- RES 4: 157.24 2.382 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
- RES 3: 156.75 High Jan 23
- RES 2: 156.58 2.236 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
- RES 1: 156.30 Intraday high
- PRICE: 156.17 @ 11:41 GMT Nov 19
- SUP 1: 153.68 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 152.82 Low Nov 7
- SUP 3: 151.74 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 150.47 Low Oct 21
USDJPY continues to appreciate, reinforcing bullish conditions. This also confirms once again, a resumption of the uptrend. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 156.58 next, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is 153.68, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of the average is required to signal scope for a corrective pullback.
OPTIONS: Expiries for Nov19 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
Nov-19 11:40
- EUR/USD: $1.1600(E1.3bln), $1.1700(E1.1bln), $1.1800(E1.6bln)
- USD/JPY: Y153.00($1.3bln), Y153.50($781mln), Y155.50($527mln)
- GBP/USD: $1.3100(Gbp530mln)
