OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Cycle In EUROSTOXX 50 Futures Intact

• In the equity space, S&P E-Minis continue to trade inside a range. Key resistance at 7043.00, the Jan 28 high, is intact and attention is on 6751.50, the Feb 6 low, where a break would highlight a stronger reversal. This would open 6691.56, 76.4% of the Nov 21 - Jan 28 bull leg. Initial resistance to watch is 6912.55 (pierced), the 50-day EMA. A clear break of it would be short-term bullish development.
• The primary trend condition in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains bullish. The contract has cleared the 6100.00 handle and this paves the way for a move towards 6172.00 next, a 1.500 projection of the Nov 21 - Dec 12 - 18 price swing. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 5942.49. Clearance of this average would highlight a short-term top.

As we have previously noted, 10-Year Bund yields are through trend support, with 2.70% limiting the downside at this stage as tariff & AI risks continue to underpin core global FI markets.

• A more favourable flow backdrop for EGBs is also providing support on the week, even when accounting for today’s Spanish 30-Year syndication (orderbooks for that offering top EUR115bln, pointing to ongoing strong demand)
• TD Securities have recommended taking profit on the long Bund position they initiated back in December.
• They note that “the recent rally in global rates has been strong and primarily led by Treasuries. However, we do not believe that the underlying fundamentals sufficiently support a dovish bias in rates. Both hard data and surprise indicators remain resilient, while the supply pipeline weighs on term premia.”
• TD acknowledge that “low liquidity conditions as well as month-end effects, have contributed to the recent move. In light of this, we are closing our long position and remain biased toward the small short position we have established in the EUR front end (paid EUR 2y1y)”.

• E7bln (MNI expected E5-8bln, Reuters source said Treasury looks for E6bln - we warned of upside risks after this).
• Books closed in excess of E115bln pre-rec (including E5.95bln JLM interest)
• Spread set at 4.00% Oct-54 Obli mid (ISIN: ES0000012M93) +5bps (guidance was +8bps area)
• Coupon: Short first
• Maturity: Oct. 31, 2056
• ISIN: ES0000012R56
• Settlement: March 3, 2026 (T+5)
• Bookrunners: BNPP, Citi, CA-CIB, DB, GS, HSBC (B&D / DM)
• Timing: Allocations and pricing to follow

From market source / MNI colour